A recent inquiry from a dealer-appraiser raised a pertinent question; with significant changes in the world over the past year, have rare book, manuscript, and map appraisals issued in the mid-2019s ought/should they be revised?
There are two answers.
Valuation is generally determined on long term trends but when there are tectonic shifts and if auction prices hew high and low, should appraisals reflect short term reality?
Research members have access to tools on the brown toolbar under Upcoming Auctions. Here are the choices:
Auction Home
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Trends in Book Auction Prices
Charts and Analyses
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Charts and Analyses is a link to a series of year by year charts accessible while signed in as a paid member:
Using these charts it’s possible to examine 2019 month by month to compare the first 4 months [soon 5 months] of 2020 whether the market is holding firm.
And the answers are yes, yes, and not quite.
The pace of auction lots are holding, that said, the year over year norm has been that that number increases about 3.5% a year. So, because there is no current gain that’s a bit unusual.
The percentage of lots sold is also vital and it is a reasonable conjecture that the percentage of lots sold would be declining given the Covid crisis. This year the sell through rate has actually inched up from 80.4% in 2019 to 82.4% in 2020. This has been unexpected and frequently commented on in the Weekly Auction Updates.
And now for the not quite – and this may be meaningful. The median lot price is running soft. This is unsurprising because auction houses world-wide carefully manage low estimates to ensure success for all parties. So it’s logical that in this Covid period estimates are trending down. And said another way, when/if estimates begin to trend higher this will be a forward indicator that the auction market is believing the worst is behind us. Fingers crossed!
And a reminder that research members can also chart market expectations for any material in the Transaction Database. To do this run your search, select relevant records by marking them, then run the Get Current Estimate for a custom prepared report in 15 seconds.
Sotheby's Fine Books, Manuscripts & More Available for Immediate Purchase
Sotheby’s: J.R.R. Tolkien. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy. 11,135 USD
Sotheby’s: Edgar Allan Poe. The Raven and Other Poems, 1845. 33,000 USD
Sotheby’s: Leo Tolstoy, Clara Bow. War and Peace, 1886. 22,500 USD
Sotheby’s: Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. Adventures of Sherlock Holmes, 1902. 7,500 USD
Sotheby’s: F. Scott Fitzgerald. This Side of Paradise, The Great Gatsby, and Others, 1920-1941. 24,180 USD
Freeman’s | Hindman Fine Printed Books and Manuscripts, Including Americana November 14
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: LEROUX, Gaston. The Phantom of the Opera. FIRST AM. ED, FIRST ISSUE IN THE VERY RARE DUST JACKET. 1911. $6,000 – 8,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD, John. A Monograph of the Trochilidae...Humming-Birds. L., [1849-] 1861. $60,000 – 80,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: A COMPLETE RUN of Limited Editions Club publications, v.p. [mostly New York], 1929-2010. $50,000 – 60,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: ORWELL, George. Nineteen Eighty-Four. Lon., 1949. FIRST EDITION IN A VERY FINE DUST JACKET. $6,000 – 8,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD. A Monograph of the Ramphastidae...Toucans. L., [1852-] 54. SECOND ED. $35,000 – 45,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:The Federalist. NY, 1788. FIRST EDITION, THICK PAPER COPY. $60,000 – 80,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: SELBY. Plates to Selby’s Illustrations of British Ornithology. Edin., [1833-] 34. $20,000 – 30,000.
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: APRES DE MANNEVILLETTE Le Neptune Oriental
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: CASSAS Eaux fortes de la Sicile et quelques vues d’Espagne
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: CASSINI DE THURY Carte générale et particulière de la France.
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: JOUY; GARNERAY Vues des côtes de France dans l'Océan et dans la Méditerranée
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: LA PÉROUSE Voyage autour du monde
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: LE GENTIL DE LA GALAISIERE Voyage dans les Mers de l’Inde
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: LICENT Hoang Ho, Pai Ho, Loan Ho, Leao Ho. Itinéraires suivis dans le bassin du golfe du Pei Tcheuly
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: FRENCH SCHOOL FROM THE 19th CENTURY Panorama d’Athènes
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: PEETERS Description des principales villes, havres et isles du golfe de Venise
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: PÉRON; FREYCINET Voyage de découverte aux terres australes
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: STACKELBERG La Grèce : vues pittoresques et topographiques.
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: VALENTINER Atlas des Sonnensystems.
Forum Auctions Online Sale: The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper Ending 7th November, 2024
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). The Thirteen Problems, first edition, The Crime Club, 1932. £15,000 to £20,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Dumb Witness, first edition, 1937. £3,000 to £4,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Cards on the Table, first edition, The Crime Club, 1936. £2,000 to £3,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: [Carr (John Dickson)], "Carter Dickson" and John Rhode. Drop to his Death, first edition, Heinemann, [1939]. £600 to £800.
Forum, Nov. 7: Berkeley (Anthony). Jumping Jenny, first edition, Hodder and Stoughton, 1933. £800 to £1,200.
Forum Auctions Online Sale: The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper Ending 7th November, 2024
Forum, Nov. 7: Marsh (Ngaio). Overture to Death, first edition, The Crime Club, 1939. £600 to £800.
Forum, Nov. 7: [Day-Lewis (Cecil)] "Nicholas Blake". The Beast Must Die, first edition, 1938. £750 to £1,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Brand (Christianna). Green for Danger, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author, John Lane the Bodley Head, 1945. £600 to £800.
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Murder is Easy, first edition, signed by the author, 1939. £3,000 to £4,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Sayers (Dorothy L.) Lord Peter Views the Body, first edition, Gollancz, 1928. £6,000 to £8,000.
Doyle Stage & Screen November 14 & 15
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A studio-sanctioned Darth Vader Touring Costume from The Empire Strikes Back. $50,000 to $100,000.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: An original Al Hirschfeld's illustration of the cast of On Golden Pond. $4,000 to $6,000.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: The largest trove of personal Grace Kelly letters to come to market. $60,000 to $80,000.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: An Important Archive of Musical Manuscripts of Truman Capote and Harold Arlen's House of Flowers. $40,000 to $60,000.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: The archive of an original Merrily We Roll Along Broadway cast member. $5,000 to $10,000.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Jerry Herman's Yamaha Model C7 Ebonized Grand Piano. $6,000 to $9,000.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A large group of Jerry Herman musical posters. $300 to $500.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Group of awards presented to Jerry Herman. $300 to $400.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Six pages of original art for "The MAD Game of Basebrawl," a complete story published in MAD #167, pages 31-36, June 1974. $3,000 to $4,000.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A MAD book made for Al Jaffee, containing original art and writings from many MAD contributors. 2011. $1,200 to $1,800.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A Jaffee-themed MAD Fold-In - "What honor should the creator of the MAD Fold-Ins be given?" $800 to $1,200.
Doyle, Nov. 14-15: MAD Fold-In - "What developing news story has many Americans totally transfixed?" $800 to $1,200.
![<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> GOULD, John. <i>A Monograph of the Trochilidae...Humming-Birds.</i> L., [1849-] 1861. $60,000 – 80,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/5a5a37a4-bc84-4fa8-b8b8-bad6106a9297.jpg "<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> GOULD, John. <i>A Monograph of the Trochilidae...Humming-Birds.</i> L., [1849-] 1861. $60,000 – 80,000.")
![<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> A COMPLETE RUN of Limited Editions Club publications, v.p. [mostly New York], 1929-2010. $50,000 – 60,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/00aa5647-98fa-42e5-aa1f-e306d308a753.jpg "<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> A COMPLETE RUN of Limited Editions Club publications, v.p. [mostly New York], 1929-2010. $50,000 – 60,000.")
![<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> GOULD. <i>A Monograph of the Ramphastidae...Toucans.</i> L., [1852-] 54. SECOND ED. $35,000 – 45,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/529a982d-de64-41cf-b68c-93f0df023bfc.jpg "<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> GOULD. <i>A Monograph of the Ramphastidae...Toucans.</i> L., [1852-] 54. SECOND ED. $35,000 – 45,000.")
![<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> SELBY. <i>Plates to Selby’s Illustrations of British Ornithology.</i> Edin., [1833-] 34. $20,000 – 30,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/5c121f9c-5368-40ac-a487-76508b5ac622.jpg "<b>Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:</b> SELBY. <i>Plates to Selby’s Illustrations of British Ornithology.</i> Edin., [1833-] 34. $20,000 – 30,000.")
![<b>Forum, Nov. 7:</b> [Carr (John Dickson)], "Carter Dickson" and John Rhode. <i>Drop to his Death,</i> first edition, Heinemann, [1939]. £600 to £800.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/b3755d4d-1805-4e33-969b-59cca97eb26e.png "<b>Forum, Nov. 7:</b> [Carr (John Dickson)], \"Carter Dickson\" and John Rhode. <i>Drop to his Death,</i> first edition, Heinemann, [1939]. £600 to £800.")
![<b>Forum, Nov. 7:</b> [Day-Lewis (Cecil)] "Nicholas Blake". <i>The Beast Must Die,</i> first edition, 1938. £750 to £1,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/b1a17968-ead3-471f-b6b2-ccd4e31c0e2c.png "<b>Forum, Nov. 7:</b> [Day-Lewis (Cecil)] \"Nicholas Blake\". <i>The Beast Must Die,</i> first edition, 1938. £750 to £1,000.")
