Trends in Book Auction Prices - New Charts Let You See Where the Market Is Going
- by Michael Stillman
Chart shows whether year-to-year prices are up or down.
By Michael Stillman
This month, the Americana Exchange initiates coverage of what we call "Trends in Book Auction Prices." We now provide three graphs that look at auction prices and sell-through rates going back over four years. Depending on whether you are buyer or seller, you may like or dislike what you see. We cannot change reality. What we do believe is an informed buyer or seller is always smarter than one who lacks information. That is the premise of this website, and these charts of auction trends provide one more data point of knowledge to help you make wise decisions.
Here are the three graphs, top to bottom:
1). 12-month moving average of median auction prices. Updated monthly, this chart graphs the median prices over the past 12 months. It shows you whether auction prices are trending up or down.
2). Year-to-year change in 12-month moving average. This compares the current 12-month median price, as shown above, with the same price as of one year ago. If prices have gone up, the graph will be positive; if they have gone down, it will be negative.
3). 12-month sell-through moving average. This is a chart of sell-through rates at auction, a 12-month moving average updated monthly. Find out whether auction houses are selling a higher, or lower, percentage of the books they offer.
Why do we use 12-month averages instead of just the most recent month's results? The answer is that there are too few auctions in any one month to provide a reliable sample. The graph would be a cacophony of peaks and valleys. A 12-month average smoothes out the spikes, enabling us to see what the trends truly are.
For those unfamiliar with moving averages, it simply is a regular updating of a constant period of time, in this case, one year. For example, our most recent 12-month period ran from May 1, 2008 - April 30, 2009. Once May auction results are received, a new point will be added to the graphs covering sales from June 1, 2008 - May 31, 2009.
The "Trends in Book Auction Prices" charts are found as a link from AE's Auction Search Page. This is the page that enables you to search book lots at upcoming auctions, view a summary of results and the top ten prices at the most recent 20 auctions, and view a calendar of future auctions and results of recently completed ones. You can click the following link if you wish to go directly to the new page of "Trends in Book Auction Prices."
Sotheby’s Books, Manuscripts and Music from Medieval to Modern Now through July 10, 2025
Sotheby’s, Ending July 10: Book of Hours by the Masters of Otto van Moerdrecht, Use of Sarum, in Latin, Southern Netherlands (Bruges), c.1450. £20,000 to £30,000.
Sotheby’s, Ending July 10: Albert Einstein. Autograph letter signed, to Attilio Palatino, on his research into General Relativity, 12 May 1929. £12,000 to £18,000.
Sotheby’s, Ending July 10: John Gould. The Birds of Europe, [1832-] 1837, 5 volumes, contemporary half morocco, subscriber’s copy. £40,000 to £60,000.
Sotheby’s Books, Manuscripts and Music from Medieval to Modern Now through July 10, 2025
Sotheby’s, Ending July 10: Ian Fleming. A collection of James Bond first editions, 8 volumes in all. £8,000 to £12,000.
Sotheby’s, Ending July 10: J.K. Rowling. Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone, 1997, first edition, hardback issue. £50,000 to £70,000.
Sotheby’s, Ending July 10: J.R.R. Tolkien. Autograph letter signed, to Amy Ronald, on Pauline Baynes's map of Middle Earth, 1970. £7,000 to £10,000.
DOYLE, July 23: STOKES, I. N. PHELPS. The Iconography of Manhattan Island, 1498-1909. New York: Robert H. Dodd, 1915-28. Estimate: $3,000-5,000
DOYLE, July 23: [AUTOGRAPH - US PRESIDENT]FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT. A signed photograph of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Estimate $500-800
DOYLE, July 23: [ARION PRESS]. ABBOTT, EDWIN A. Flatland. A Romance of Many Dimensions. San Francisco, 1980. Estimate $2,000-3,000.
DOYLE, July 23: TOLSTOY, LYOF N. and NATHAN HASKELL DOLE, translator. Anna Karénina ... in eight parts. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell & Co., [1886]. Estimate: $400-600
DOYLE, July 23: ROWLING, J.K. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. London: Bloomsbury, 2000. Estimate $1,200-1,800
Freeman’s | Hindman Western Manuscripts and Miniatures July 8, 2025
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. FRANCESCO PETRARCH (b. Arezzo, 20 July 1304; d. Arqua Petrarca, 19 July 1374). $20,000-30,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. CIRCLE OF THE MASTER OF THE VITAE IMPERATORUM (active Milan, 1431-1459). $15,000-20,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. CIRCLE OF ATTAVANTE DEGLI ATTAVANTI (GABRIELLO DI VANTE) (active Florence, c. 1452-c. 1520/25). $15,000-20,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. FOLLOWER OF HERMAN SCHEERE (active London, c. 1405-1425). $15,000-20,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. An exceptionally rare, illuminated music leaf from a Mozarabic Antiphonal with sister leaves mostly in museum collections. $11,500-14,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. Exceptional leaf from a prestigious Antiphonary by a leading illuminator of the late Duecento. $11,500-14,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. CIRCLE OF THE MASTER OF MS REID 33 and SELWERD ABBEY SCRIPTORIUM (AGNES MARTINI?) (active The Netherlands, Groningen, c. 1468-1510). $10,000-15,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, July 8. Previously unknown illumination from one of the most renowned Gothic Choir Book sets of the Middle Ages. $6,000-8,000.
![Sotheby’s, Ending July 10: John Gould. The Birds of Europe, [1832-] 1837, 5 volumes, contemporary half morocco, subscriber’s copy. £40,000 to £60,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/64dbb393-4712-4536-a1a6-26d823c523dc.png "<b>Sotheby’s, Ending July 10:</b> John Gould. <i>The Birds of Europe,</i> [1832-] 1837, 5 volumes, contemporary half morocco, subscriber’s copy. £40,000 to £60,000.")
![DOYLE, July 23: [AUTOGRAPH - US PRESIDENT]FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT. A signed photograph of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Estimate $500-800](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/4ce5fa1d-1943-4413-a80d-7b5c75383e7e.jpg "<b>DOYLE, July 23:</b> [AUTOGRAPH - US PRESIDENT]FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT. A signed photograph of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Estimate $500-800")
![DOYLE, July 23: [ARION PRESS]. ABBOTT, EDWIN A. Flatland. A Romance of Many Dimensions. San Francisco, 1980. Estimate $2,000-3,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/fa635c85-6b12-44f2-8832-2087579574d9.jpg "<b>DOYLE, July 23:</b> [ARION PRESS]. ABBOTT, EDWIN A. <i>Flatland. A Romance of Many Dimensions.</i> San Francisco, 1980. Estimate $2,000-3,000.")
![DOYLE, July 23: TOLSTOY, LYOF N. and NATHAN HASKELL DOLE, translator. Anna Karénina ... in eight parts. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell & Co., [1886]. Estimate: $400-600](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/af9f4e1a-90c2-428c-8d49-9624b070c7a9.jpg "<b>DOYLE, July 23:</b> TOLSTOY, LYOF N. and NATHAN HASKELL DOLE, translator. <i>Anna Karénina ... in eight parts.</i> New York: Thomas Y. Crowell & Co., [1886]. Estimate: $400-600")
