For Printed Materials: The Probability of Appearance
- by Bruce E. McKinney
Joel Munsell: the fastidious bibliographer
By Bruce McKinney
It is becoming possible to estimate the print runs of perhaps 150,000 antiquarian items, whose printing histories were never recorded, based on formulas that compare detailed printing records provided by Joel Munsell to the number of copies found in the OCLC, appearances at auction and sightings on listing sites and eBay. The goal is a new statistical measure that projects "probability of appearance" for books and ephemera. The internet has made it possible for millions of items to be offered but what is the likelihood what you are looking for will show up? I think we can know.
Munsell's material, published over a fifty year period in the 19th century, covered an extensive range of subjects and was printed in formats that range from 8-page pamphlets to 400-page books. He documented his printing history and it comes down to us today as a basis for comparison to copies in institutional, auction and listing venues. He published a directory of 2,268 printings and documented a thousand items, published between 1834 and 1870, with bibliographic details and the quantities printed.
For book dealers, collectors, auction houses and libraries such information may in time become part of a printing's essential facts. The initial print run is but one factor in calculating "probability of appearance" but it is an essential one that combined with appearances in various databases, historical data and bibliographic details may make it possible to construct an index with implications for all collectible printed materials.
The theory is simple algebra and the objective to solve for the unknown. Munsell provides half the variables and modern databases and listing sites the other. In Munsell's case, with both sides known, we should be able to establish the range of variation with some precision and apply this range broadly to material that lacks the quantity printed but is otherwise bibliographically complete.
For this we owe a debt to Joel Munsell, the Albany, New York printer, who maintained extensive records of the various books and pamphlets he printed during his career. In Bibliotheca Munselliana: A Catalogue of the Books and Pamphlets issued from the Press of Joel Munsell from the year 1828 to 1870, he detailed 2,268 book and pamphlet printing jobs including the quantity printed for about 1,000 of them. Using the information he provides it's possible to compare his quantities with their appearances in library inventories, at auction and on listing sites. With these numbers we can estimate survival statistics and in time "probabilities of appearance."
In this article I examine Munsell's production for the period 1834 through 1840 for which he identifies 104 items. I then focus on 64, all books and pamphlets, for which he provides the quantities printed and compare these quantities to the number of copies found in the OCLC today. Let's take a look.
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: APRES DE MANNEVILLETTE Le Neptune Oriental
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: CASSAS Eaux fortes de la Sicile et quelques vues d’Espagne
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: CASSINI DE THURY Carte générale et particulière de la France.
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: JOUY; GARNERAY Vues des côtes de France dans l'Océan et dans la Méditerranée
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: LA PÉROUSE Voyage autour du monde
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: LE GENTIL DE LA GALAISIERE Voyage dans les Mers de l’Inde
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: LICENT Hoang Ho, Pai Ho, Loan Ho, Leao Ho. Itinéraires suivis dans le bassin du golfe du Pei Tcheuly
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: FRENCH SCHOOL FROM THE 19th CENTURY Panorama d’Athènes
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: PEETERS Description des principales villes, havres et isles du golfe de Venise
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: PÉRON; FREYCINET Voyage de découverte aux terres australes
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: STACKELBERG La Grèce : vues pittoresques et topographiques.
Gros & Delettrez, 7 November: VALENTINER Atlas des Sonnensystems.
Forum Auctions Online Sale: The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper Ending 7th November, 2024
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). The Thirteen Problems, first edition, The Crime Club, 1932. £15,000 to £20,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Dumb Witness, first edition, 1937. £3,000 to £4,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Cards on the Table, first edition, The Crime Club, 1936. £2,000 to £3,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: [Carr (John Dickson)], "Carter Dickson" and John Rhode. Drop to his Death, first edition, Heinemann, [1939]. £600 to £800.
Forum, Nov. 7: Berkeley (Anthony). Jumping Jenny, first edition, Hodder and Stoughton, 1933. £800 to £1,200.
Forum Auctions Online Sale: The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper Ending 7th November, 2024
Forum, Nov. 7: Marsh (Ngaio). Overture to Death, first edition, The Crime Club, 1939. £600 to £800.
Forum, Nov. 7: [Day-Lewis (Cecil)] "Nicholas Blake". The Beast Must Die, first edition, 1938. £750 to £1,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Brand (Christianna). Green for Danger, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author, John Lane the Bodley Head, 1945. £600 to £800.
Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Murder is Easy, first edition, signed by the author, 1939. £3,000 to £4,000.
Forum, Nov. 7: Sayers (Dorothy L.) Lord Peter Views the Body, first edition, Gollancz, 1928. £6,000 to £8,000.
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RareBookBuyer.com Specialized in Purchasing Institutional Collections & Deacccessioned Books
RareBookBuyer.com We Buy Librairies & Rare Books Nationwide ABAA Dealer
RareBookBuyer.com Specialized in Purchasing Institutional Collections & Deacccessioned Books
RareBookBuyer.com We Buy Librairies & Rare Books Nationwide ABAA Dealer
RareBookBuyer.com Specialized in Purchasing Institutional Collections & Deacccessioned Books
RareBookBuyer.com We Buy Librairies & Rare Books Nationwide ABAA Dealer
Sotheby's Fine Books, Manuscripts & More Available for Immediate Purchase
Sotheby’s: J.R.R. Tolkien. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy. 11,135 USD
Sotheby’s: Edgar Allan Poe. The Raven and Other Poems, 1845. 33,000 USD
Sotheby’s: Leo Tolstoy, Clara Bow. War and Peace, 1886. 22,500 USD
Sotheby’s: Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. Adventures of Sherlock Holmes, 1902. 7,500 USD
Sotheby’s: F. Scott Fitzgerald. This Side of Paradise, The Great Gatsby, and Others, 1920-1941. 24,180 USD
Freeman’s | Hindman Fine Printed Books and Manuscripts, Including Americana November 14
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: LEROUX, Gaston. The Phantom of the Opera. FIRST AM. ED, FIRST ISSUE IN THE VERY RARE DUST JACKET. 1911. $6,000 – 8,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD, John. A Monograph of the Trochilidae...Humming-Birds. L., [1849-] 1861. $60,000 – 80,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: A COMPLETE RUN of Limited Editions Club publications, v.p. [mostly New York], 1929-2010. $50,000 – 60,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: ORWELL, George. Nineteen Eighty-Four. Lon., 1949. FIRST EDITION IN A VERY FINE DUST JACKET. $6,000 – 8,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD. A Monograph of the Ramphastidae...Toucans. L., [1852-] 54. SECOND ED. $35,000 – 45,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14:The Federalist. NY, 1788. FIRST EDITION, THICK PAPER COPY. $60,000 – 80,000.
Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: SELBY. Plates to Selby’s Illustrations of British Ornithology. Edin., [1833-] 34. $20,000 – 30,000.