Collectible paper at auction has been on a tear post-Covid and now we’re entering a period of political uncertainty. To understand how the auctions and their consignors are responding, our auction data provides perspective on how the market is unfolding.
Given this, here are possible projections for 2024.
The auctions we posted and completed through 30 May, 2024, are showing substantial growth both for the number of auctions and lots posted.
I then compared both the number of auctions and lots posted for January – May for the past 3 years to see what their January - May numbers turned into for their full years. On average J-M’s numbers turned out to be 40% what the full year’s results became.* This means this year's 1,158 sales are projecting 2,907 sales for the full year. If so, Golly Gee Willikers!
|
Year J-M |
Auctions |
Lots |
|
|
2021 |
858 |
236,960 |
|
|
2022 |
990 |
261,460 |
|
|
2023 |
1008 |
261,076 |
|
|
2024 |
1158 |
284,489 |
|
Full Year |
Lots Offered |
Lots Sold |
% Sold |
2.5 x J-M |
|
2319 |
636,853 |
522,032 |
82% |
2.7 |
|
2354 |
626,346 |
504,795 |
81% |
2.38 |
|
2480 |
658,433 |
525,433 |
80% |
2.46 |
|
2,907 |
714,067 |
571,254 |
78% |
2.51 |
And can we reach a billion dollars for collectible paper again?
The answer is yes if the average sale is $1,750.05.
All this said, we have no idea how this year’s political uncertainty is going to affect consignments. Right now, it’s full speed ahead!
