Collectible paper at auction has been on a tear post-Covid and now we’re entering a period of political uncertainty. To understand how the auctions and their consignors are responding, our auction data provides perspective on how the market is unfolding.
Given this, here are possible projections for 2024.
The auctions we posted and completed through 30 May, 2024, are showing substantial growth both for the number of auctions and lots posted.
I then compared both the number of auctions and lots posted for January – May for the past 3 years to see what their January - May numbers turned into for their full years. On average J-M’s numbers turned out to be 40% what the full year’s results became.* This means this year's 1,158 sales are projecting 2,907 sales for the full year. If so, Golly Gee Willikers!
Year J-M
Auctions
Lots
2021
858
236,960
2022
990
261,460
2023
1008
261,076
2024
1158
284,489
Full Year
Lots Offered
Lots Sold
% Sold
2.5 x J-M
2319
636,853
522,032
82%
2.7
2354
626,346
504,795
81%
2.38
2480
658,433
525,433
80%
2.46
2,907
714,067
571,254
78%
2.51
And can we reach a billion dollars for collectible paper again?
The answer is yes if the average sale is $1,750.05.
All this said, we have no idea how this year’s political uncertainty is going to affect consignments. Right now, it’s full speed ahead!
DOYLE, Aug. 7: STOKES, I. N. PHELPS. The Iconography of Manhattan Island, 1498-1909. New York: Robert H. Dodd, 1915-28. Estimate: $3,000-5,000
DOYLE, Aug. 7: [AUTOGRAPH - US PRESIDENT]FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT. A signed photograph of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Estimate $500-800
DOYLE, Aug. 7: [ARION PRESS]. ABBOTT, EDWIN A. Flatland. A Romance of Many Dimensions. San Francisco, 1980. Estimate $2,000-3,000.
DOYLE, Aug. 7: TOLSTOY, LYOF N. and NATHAN HASKELL DOLE, translator. Anna Karénina ... in eight parts. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell & Co., [1886]. Estimate: $400-600
DOYLE, Aug. 7: ROWLING, J.K. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. London: Bloomsbury, 2000. Estimate $1,200-1,800
![Sotheby’s: Ernest Hemingway. Three Stories And Ten Poems, [Paris], (1923). First edition of Hemingway’s first published book. $75,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/acf970a0-a15d-4c79-aa24-5e8e414cb465.png "<b>Sotheby’s:</b> Ernest Hemingway. <i>Three Stories And Ten Poems,</i> [Paris], (1923). First edition of Hemingway’s first published book. $75,000.")
![DOYLE, Aug. 7: [AUTOGRAPH - US PRESIDENT]FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT. A signed photograph of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Estimate $500-800](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/4ce5fa1d-1943-4413-a80d-7b5c75383e7e.jpg "<b>DOYLE, Aug. 7:</b> [AUTOGRAPH - US PRESIDENT]FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT. A signed photograph of Franklin D. Roosevelt. Estimate $500-800")
![DOYLE, Aug. 7: [ARION PRESS]. ABBOTT, EDWIN A. Flatland. A Romance of Many Dimensions. San Francisco, 1980. Estimate $2,000-3,000.](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/fa635c85-6b12-44f2-8832-2087579574d9.jpg "<b>DOYLE, Aug. 7:</b> [ARION PRESS]. ABBOTT, EDWIN A. <i>Flatland. A Romance of Many Dimensions.</i> San Francisco, 1980. Estimate $2,000-3,000.")
![DOYLE, Aug. 7: TOLSTOY, LYOF N. and NATHAN HASKELL DOLE, translator. Anna Karénina ... in eight parts. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell & Co., [1886]. Estimate: $400-600](https://ae-files.s3.amazonaws.com/AdvertisementPhotos/af9f4e1a-90c2-428c-8d49-9624b070c7a9.jpg "<b>DOYLE, Aug. 7:</b> TOLSTOY, LYOF N. and NATHAN HASKELL DOLE, translator. <i>Anna Karénina ... in eight parts.</i> New York: Thomas Y. Crowell & Co., [1886]. Estimate: $400-600")
