Rare Book Monthly

Articles - July - 2021 Issue

Where are we?

Clarity

Clarity

The last year has been a whirlwind for the auction market. In the early months of the Pandemic, when the Trade and book fairs scrambled to work out online platforms and the possibilities of sourcing new material to offer collectors were closing, the book departments of auction houses had a head start, aided by their pre-existing infrastructure. At the same time, collectors, housebound with extra financial resources, grew more comfortable with online auction platforms. During this period, I observed some of my clients (normally hesitant in online auctions) growing more familiar with the process for sourcing material to shape their collections.

 

This migration of catalogue- and fair-centric collectors to online auction platforms is not an isolated occurrence. A wider survey of the numbers reflects this. Looking back a year, the ‘Average Median Auction Price’ is up $380 from roughly $2,670 in April 2020 to $3,050 in April 2021. During the same period the ‘Sell Through Rate’ increased from 79% to 83%. Does this indicate a seismic shift is taking place? It’s hard to say on a short timeline. Time will tell whether this was the by-product of the circumstances or a major structural change resulting in real growth in the auction market.

 

As alluded to, one of the major drivers of the observed growth was that the infrastructures developed by the auction houses allowed for a smooth transition (not to mention search engine optimization already in place to enhance visibility). The second driver was the opportunity to supply the demand which the Trade was unable to fill on account of its limited channels to market and, in some cases, the requirement of complete overhauls in their business strategy. Of course, this was not the case for all dealers. Indeed, some dealers reported better than average sales for the year. However, few revealed whether or not such figures were after expenses (which would have dipped considerably if one relied solely on fairs and catalogues). Another phenomenon mentioned by Dealers was the opportunity to go into their backlog of uncatalogued items. The result has been a palpable enthusiasm among the Trade and the production of truly individual catalogues.

 

From another angle, what might these figures tell us? Not simply that auction houses were satiating the demand not being fulfilled by the Trade, but that the quality (rarity and/or condition) of the material on offer was exceptional. Certainly, the many deaccessioning efforts during the Pandemic as well as the increase of dedicated Collector sales presented unique, once-in-a-lifetime opportunities. Combine this with the reallocation of book department expense accounts from travel to marketing and the buzz begins — as we’ve seen over the past few months.

 

Now, is this sustainable? As populations in North America and Europe continue getting vaccinated and health measures loosen, it will be important to watch both the ‘Average Median Auction Price’ and ‘Sell Through Rate’. Already the sell through rate from February 2021 to April is seeing a decrease of 0.7%, perhaps indicating that buyers are starting to source material elsewhere as dealers are more able to conduct house calls and in-person Fairs open up again.

 

But, during this period of social isolation, I have observed some interesting structural transformations. The aforementioned reticent collectors had the time to examine their collections more deeply, conduct independent research, examine comparables for material they were seeking, and, overall, become more self-reliant and open to the idea of diversifying the channels through which they source material.

 

The announcement made by Donald Heald in the June 2021 issue of Rare Book Hub Monthly that his firm will hold auctions, further reflects this shift as, “both buyers and sellers are increasingly expressing a preference for market-derived prices.” After almost a year, collectors have grown accustomed to the publicly available data provided through auction results. It is not surprising, therefore, that Dealers would want to stage auctions (if they can afford to do so) and align themselves with a more transparent process. The growth witnessed in the auction market over the past year might lessen, however its mechanisms will remain appealing to all involved (whether buyer or seller). What will be interesting to observe is how the transition of Dealers to adopt auction platforms will permanently change the structure of their businesses and how they conduct them.

 

Moving forward, for buyers In an environment of heightened activity, as a collector, it is important to separate the effects generated by the mechanisms of an ‘event’ from the means by which you are building your collection. In most cases, there will be other times at which an item can be acquired. Paying too much for an item has a corrosive effect on a collection as the reason for paying ‘that much’ is due to the perception that one has ‘sunk money’ into the collection. I have witnessed this phenomenon when analyzing the purchasing history of clients. Following a ‘bad’ purchase, enthusiasm and confidence in one’s collecting is called into question resulting in sporadic, less focused purchases or abandonment of the project altogether.

 

What is new in all of this? Events and environments that generate a sense of scarcity are integral to the momentum of the rare books and ephemera industry. Certainly, there are dealers who maintain close relations with collectors and have buyers in mind when sourcing material (ideally). However, there is now (more than ever) the chance of netting new collectors through online channels, offering fresh opportunities to those in the Trade.

 

Coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, ‘time pressure’ tactics explicitly implemented by the auction mechanism have migrated over to the Trade which have often eschewed competitive bidding environments for one-on-one, trust-based relationships with collectors. Superficially, the constant presence of a countdown clock when browsing virtual fairs enforces a time pressure which is instrumental within auction environments to increased bidding.

 

Indeed, a hybridity is unfolding in the collecting markets of books, print material, and photography as auction houses seek new demographics of collectors to tap into and the Trade seek to source stock that has yet to be priced out. The auction houses want the cultural caché of the Dealers and, with it, net new marketing exposure that specialist, countercultural dealers possess; the Dealers are attracted to the sense of anticipation and urgency intrinsic to the auction event. This can, indeed, be a positive, symbiotic relationship. Swann’s recent ‘Salon Series’ roundtable with the recipients of the Honey & Wax prize entitled “Owning It: A Round table for Young Collectors” is an interesting collaboration. An attempt by Swann to facilitate a discussion around collecting in order to build trust and further legitimacy. Certainly, these distinctions of Trade and the Auction Market have been porous for some time as Houses often hire specialists from the Trade, not only for their expertise in cataloguing material but also to take advantage of their connections both to source property and attract bidders. Furthermore, the inclusion of less conventional material at auction (i.e. with evidence of performance at auction) seems to signal a further encroachment into the realm where the Trade solely operated.

 

It will be interesting to see how virtual elements are integrated into Book Fairs as they begin being held in person again, and whether or not it will augment (or distort) the overall experience. Speaking with clients who were new to the auction event, some admitted to an excitement in participating. This is certainly something that can be an advantage to sellers. There are forces at play when one makes use of time pressure and bidding that are fundamentally different to a transactional experience. Auction platforms hosted in the digital environment have the potential to open a Pandora’s box for collectors.

 

In conclusion, the developments in the auction market have important implications for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, auctions offer more information on prices, frequency of appearance, and condition of items than ever before. This should help buyers who have an acquisition strategy improve their buying. Additionally, items that have never before been available are showing up in dedicated collector auctions, as well as auctions supplemented by the deaccessioning activities of institutions. This presents opportunities to make big, strategic purchases for those with a plan. There is an elevated requirement for collectors to know their collections and have a collecting strategy before they venture out into the auction world.

 

For Sellers, strong auction price performance fueled by an influx of roughly a year of new data around client interaction (as well as the addition of net-new buyers with money to spend in the auction market) make it a good time to sell, creating liquidity for their collections. More participants on the buy side of the market, equipped with more information driving more confidence to purchase at auction is resulting in strong auction sell-through performance. An opportunity exists for collectors to fine-tune their collections by selling items that no longer fit their longer-term plan, generating capital to purchase items more closely aligned with their collecting strategy.

 

Spencer W Stuart will be delivering a talk for the Book Club of California expanding on these topics July 12th at 5pm [Pacific] to register: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_Fp8WhqbyTgaVIuFvfHipxQ

 

 

About Spencer W. Stuart

Spencer W. Stuart provides advisory services to private collectors as well as institutions aiding in the design and execution of collection development, management and deaccession strategies.

 

In concert with his advising, Spencer is an active writer and lecturer on histories of the printed word for a variety of publications including The Book Collector and Amphora as well as with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

 

He can be contacted directly through his site: http://spencerwstuart.ca/services/

 

Rare Book Monthly

  • Rose City Book & Paper Fair
    June 14-15, 2025
    1000 NE Multnomah, Portland
    ROSECITYBOOKFAIR.COM
  • Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 748. Second volume of Blaeu's atlas featuring 89 maps of the Americas and Asia (1642) Est. $12,000 - $15,000
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 12. A world map with popular cartographic myths and unique embellishments (1788) Est. $3,000 - $3,750
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 30. One of the most sought-after charts from Cellarius' work (1708) Est. $1,200 - $1,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 38. Anti-Vietnam War persuasive cartography on a velvet poster (1971) Est. $350 - $425
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 43. Ortelius' influential map of the New World - second plate (1584) Est. $4,750 - $6,000
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 95. Scarce German map illustrating the French & Indian War (1755) Est. $8,000 - $9,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 149. Bachmann's dramatic view of the Mid-Atlantic region (1864) Est. $1,200 - $1,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 373. De Jode's very rare map of Europe with costumed figures (1593) Est. $6,000 - $7,500
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 674. De Bry's Petits Voyages, Part VII with all plates and map of Sri Lanka (1606) Est. $1,400 - $1,700
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 704. The first printed map devoted to the Pacific in full contemporary color (1589) Est. $7,500 - $9,000
    Old World Auctions (April 23):
    Lot 734. Superb hand-colored image of the Tree of Jesse (1502) Est. $700 - $850
  • University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Best Image of Abraham Lincoln: "Closest… to ‘seeing' Lincoln… A National Treasure" Original Hesler/Ayres Interpositive. $800,000 to $1,000,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Einstein, 3pp of Unified Field Theory Equations: “I want to try to show that a truly natural choice for field equations exists.” Formalizing His Final Approach, Association to Theory of Relativity. $80,000 to $120,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Marilyn Monroe's Best Personally Owned & Annotated Script for Unfinished Last Film, "Something's Got to Give" (1962). $75,000 to $100,000.
    University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: David Ben-Gurion ALS: "The Jewish people have attained the epitome...the State of Israel is born," 1 Day After Signing Israeli Declaration of Independence, Best Ben-Gurion Ever! $80,000 to $100,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Lincoln ALS to Youth: "A young man, before the enemy has learned to watch him...votes... shall redeem the county" Evocative of Famous "Work" Letter. $70,000 to $100,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Lincoln Appointment for Cabinet Member With Largest, Boldest, Full Signature! Important Content: Detente with England. $10,000 to $15,000.
    University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Abraham Lincoln Rare Signed Check To Law Partner W.H. Herndon, Perhaps Unique as Such! $20,000 to $25,000
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Tokyo War Crimes Files of Prosecuting Attorney For POW Camp Atrocities, 500+ Pages, Unpublished Court Documents, Photos and More. $25,000 to $35,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: 1698 South Carolina Slavery Archive Huguenot Planters Earliest Rare Plat Maps for Plantations 41 Docs 107 pp. Most Colonial. $25,000 to $35,000.
    University Archives
    Rare Autographs, Books & Photos; Abraham Lincoln Collection
    April 23, 2025
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Adam Smith ALS While Revising “The Wealth of Nations” - A New Discovery Documenting Meeting with Influential Editor. $18,000 to $24,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Margaret Mitchell Rare ALS to Her Editor as Epic Film "Gone With the Wind" Gains Heat "Forgive this scrawl. I haven't written a letter in long hand in years and I've almost forgotten how it's done." $3,000 to $4,000.
    University Archives, Apr. 23: Einstein 1935 TLS, Hopes to Warn Non-Jews of "The true nature of the Hitler regime.” $8,500 to $10,000.
  • Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 124: Henri Courvoisier-Voisin, et alia, [Recueil de Vues de Paris et ses Environs], depicting precursors of the modern roller coaster, Paris, [1814-1819?]. $2,000 to $3,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 148: Pablo Picasso & Fernando de Rojas, La Célestine, First Edition, Paris, 1971. $30,000 to $40,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 201: Omar Khayyam & Edward Fitzgerald, Rubaiyat, William Bell Scott's copy of the First Edition, London, 1859. $20,000 to $30,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 223: Charles Dickens, Great Expectations, First Edition, extra-illustrated with hand-colored plates by Palinthorpe, London, 1861. $7,000 to $9,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 248: L. Frank Baum, The Wonderful Wizard of Oz, First Edition, inscribed by the illustrator, Chicago & New York, 1900. $20,000 to $30,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 305: Tycho Brahe & Pierre Gassendi, Tychonis Brahei Vita, Paris, 1654. From the Collection of Owen Gingerich. $8,000 to $12,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 338: Giovanni Battista Riccioli, Almagestum Novum, two folio volumes, Bologna, 1651. From the Collection of Owen Gingerich. $8,000 to $10,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 350: Tobias Cohn, Ma'aseh Toviyyah, first edition, Venice, 1707-8. $3,000 to $5,000.
    Swann, Apr. 22: Lot 359: Alan Turing, Computing, Machinery, and Intelligence, first edition, Edinburgh, 1950. $3,000 to $5,000.
  • Sotheby's
    Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
    Sotheby’s: The Shem Tov Bible, 1312 | A Masterpiece from the Golden Age of Spain. Sold: 6,960,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Ten Commandments Tablet, 300-800 CE | One of humanity's earliest and most enduring moral codes. Sold: 5,040,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: William Blake | Songs of Innocence and of Experience. Sold: 4,320,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: The Declaration of Independence | The Holt printing, the only copy in private hands. Sold: 3,360,000 USD
    Sotheby's
    Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
    Sotheby’s: Thomas Taylor | The original cover art for Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. Sold: 1,920,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Machiavelli | Il Principe, a previously unrecorded copy of the book where modern political thought began. Sold: 576,000 GBP
    Sotheby’s: Leonardo da Vinci | Trattato della pittura, ca. 1639, a very fine pre-publication manuscript. Sold: 381,000 GBP
    Sotheby’s: Henri Matisse | Jazz, Paris 1947, the complete portfolio. Sold: 312,000 EUR

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