For those who collect on faith: How values change

Those who collect, collect on faith. We accept we’re paying up and hope time confirms our enthusiasms and heal our overpayments. So be it. It’s such a pleasing field. I recently re-read Scribner’s 1947 Catalogue No. 135: Rare Books in all fields of collecting. We have many Scribner catalogues in Transactions+ because they have long been appreciated as gems of focus, selection and concision but this was a new one to me. And then I thought I’d like to see how their offers have held up in the 73 years since they committed their thinking to print. And it was interesting.

These days acquirers look interchangeably between dealers and auctions. In 1947 the rare book field was retail, and auctions, by and large, wholesale. Scribner was very retail, residing at 597 Fifth Avenue in New York City.

The timing was exquisite, the War over and the economy beginning to rev. The auctions once powerful had thinned and would recover as the next generation of dealers would become specialists. The ABAA was an idea coming into fruition in 1949. Scribner’s catalogue 135 was issued on the edge of time, aware both of what had been, looking ahead to what would be. In that spirit I reread their 465 lot opus and I’m sharing how 18 random items have fared.

Take care. It’s a wild ride. Copernicus’ 1543 [Yes they had one!] will go much higher than our estimates suggest because we follow trends over the past 120 years and Copernicus was less appreciated, even to the point, hard to sell in the first half of the 20^th century, while other items would deeply underperform today. Every dog gets it’s day.

What are they?

The Education of Henry Adams. Adams. 1907. The privately printed first edition. $450
American Turf Register. 1830-44. First editions. $2,500
Peter Pan in Kensington Gardens. Barrie. 1905. First edition in original vellum $150
Grande Sonate Pour Le Pianoforte, Beethoven. 1805. First edition $120
History and Present State of Virginia. Beverly. 1705. $90
The Tenant of Wildfell Hall by Acton Bell. Bronte. 1848. 3 volumes, various editions with corrections in the author’s hand. $1,250
Poems. William Cullen Bryant. 1821. Rare in this condition. $450
The Feminine Monarchie, or The History of Bees. Butler. 1634. First edition in phonetic spelling. $40
Lectures on Coal-Tar Colours [with] Dyeing and Calico Printing. Calvert. 1863 & 1876. $90
The Gentleman and Cabinet Maker’s Director. Chippendale. 1755. The second, most sought after edition. $250
[American] Constitution printed at Poughkeepsie. 1788. $550
The Last of the Mohicans. A Narrative of 1757. Cooper. $425
De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium Libri VI. Copernicus. 1543. $2,250
The Origin of the Species. Darwin. 1859. A fine copy inscribed by the author. $285
The Life and Strange Surprising Adventures of Robinson Crusoe, together with… $1,250
The Posthumus Papers of the Pickwick Club. Dickens. First American edition in parts. $900
The History of Tom Jones. Fielding. 1749. 6 volumes. First editions. $650
Guillelmi Gilberti Colcestrensis. Gilbert. 1600. $675

Taken together at full retail in 1947 the price was $12,375. Today selecting comparable [this is subjective!] copies from Transactions+ we find their current estimated value to be $736,488 and their average probability of reappearance to be 14.2 years.

To this we add information from Transactions+:

		Selected Items	in	Scribner's	No. 135
	Item No.		Price in $	Comparables in Transactions +	Estimated Current Value	Probability of Reappearance in years
1	1	Adams	450	13	13,354	12.5
2	6	[Turf Register]	2,500	9	69,662	25
3	14	Barrie	150	3	5,691	25
4	24	Beethoven	120	4	5,204	25
5	32	Beverly	90	14	5,253	25
6	43	Bronte	1,250	9	19,924	2.5
7	51	Bryant	450	98	450	1.4
8	60	Butler	40	33	1,306	3.3
9	63	Calvert	90	2	4195	25
10	72	Chippendale	250	2	8,294	2.5
11	81	Constitution	550	2	22,619	25
12	84	Cooper	425	114	13,421	0.6
13	88	Copernicus	2,250	36	326,581	4
14	94	Darwin	285	10	145,928	3.3
15	95	De Foe	1,250	1	58,264	25
16	100	Dickens	900	10	4,408	25
17	128	Fielding	650	72	5,461	0.5
18	150	Gilbert	675	5	26,473	25

			12375		736,488	255.6

		5.76%				14.2

Taken together, build your collection for the fun of it while being mindful that markets, copies and opinions change.

To which I add, it’s great fun.

Attached are more detailed files.

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For those who collect on faith: How values change

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