Rare Book Monthly

Articles - August - 2020 Issue

Money Money Money

Covid-19 and the turgid economy present a lethal mixture of possibilities that will work themselves out over the next five years.  For book dealers and collectors these issues will present additional challenges because in collectibles liquidity varies negatively with uncertainty.  By the end of the year extraordinary levels of government stimulus will have been absorbed leaving diminishing positive effects after which unmistakable negative effects will take hold:  inflation and a 25% decline of the US dollar relative to a market basket of ascendant world currencies over the next 3-5 years.

 

For the rare book business there are multiple issues to consider:

 

  1. Your debt to equity ratio:  liabilities/assets.
    1. The currency you principally trade in.
  2. The cost of your collection or stock.
  3. The relative strength of your inventory.
    1. Low, middle or high end
  4. The kind of material you have as defined by price category.
  5. Are you prepared to keep your inventory to a fixed percentage of your sales?  This means that if your sales slow you will cut your stock proportionately.
  6. Is the value of your collection significant to your cashflow or net worth?
  7. Your cashflow requirements both short and long term.
  8. How and to whom would you sell?
    1. Wealthy collectors
    2. Middle class collectors
    3. Institutions online or by offer letter
    4. At auction
    5. On eBay

 

It’s always a good idea to have your financial plans updated because the next 5 years will present unusual risks.

 

I will try to help any RBH member who requests advice.

 

Bruce McKinney

bmckinney@rarebookhub.com


Posted On: 2020-08-26 17:38
User Name: laurelle

Bruce,

I have to question your statement regarding the weakening of the US Dollar. Whose currency will strengthen? The EU is borrowing/printing at the same rate, China has tremendous debts, are you anticipating a turnaround in South America? Jeff Elfont


Posted On: 2020-08-28 18:30
User Name: adminb

Deficit spending is known to stimulate economic activity but if government debt engulfs economies then the outcome is increasing inflation. Prices will rise but the value of currency exchanged will be reduced.

I expect the euro to outperform the dollar while the Yuan will underperform. Gold is a regressive hedge but the best straightforward option I see.


Rare Book Monthly

  • Forum Auctions
    Online Sale:
    The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper
    Ending 7th November, 2024
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). The Thirteen Problems, first edition, The Crime Club, 1932. £15,000 to £20,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Dumb Witness, first edition, 1937. £3,000 to £4,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Cards on the Table, first edition, The Crime Club, 1936. £2,000 to £3,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: [Carr (John Dickson)], "Carter Dickson" and John Rhode. Drop to his Death, first edition, Heinemann, [1939]. £600 to £800.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Berkeley (Anthony). Jumping Jenny, first edition, Hodder and Stoughton, 1933. £800 to £1,200.
    Forum Auctions
    Online Sale:
    The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper
    Ending 7th November, 2024
    Forum, Nov. 7: Marsh (Ngaio). Overture to Death, first edition, The Crime Club, 1939. £600 to £800.
    Forum, Nov. 7: [Day-Lewis (Cecil)] "Nicholas Blake". The Beast Must Die, first edition, 1938. £750 to £1,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Brand (Christianna). Green for Danger, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author, John Lane the Bodley Head, 1945. £600 to £800.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Murder is Easy, first edition, signed by the author, 1939. £3,000 to £4,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Sayers (Dorothy L.) Lord Peter Views the Body, first edition, Gollancz, 1928. £6,000 to £8,000.
  • Doyle
    Stage & Screen
    November 14 & 15
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A studio-sanctioned Darth Vader Touring Costume from The Empire Strikes Back. $50,000 to $100,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: An original Al Hirschfeld's illustration of the cast of On Golden Pond. $4,000 to $6,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: The largest trove of personal Grace Kelly letters to come to market. $60,000 to $80,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: An Important Archive of Musical Manuscripts of Truman Capote and Harold Arlen's House of Flowers. $40,000 to $60,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: The archive of an original Merrily We Roll Along Broadway cast member. $5,000 to $10,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Jerry Herman's Yamaha Model C7 Ebonized Grand Piano. $6,000 to $9,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A large group of Jerry Herman musical posters. $300 to $500.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Group of awards presented to Jerry Herman. $300 to $400.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Six pages of original art for "The MAD Game of Basebrawl," a complete story published in MAD #167, pages 31-36, June 1974. $3,000 to $4,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A MAD book made for Al Jaffee, containing original art and writings from many MAD contributors. 2011. $1,200 to $1,800.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A Jaffee-themed MAD Fold-In - "What honor should the creator of the MAD Fold-Ins be given?" $800 to $1,200.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: MAD Fold-In - "What developing news story has many Americans totally transfixed?" $800 to $1,200.
  • Sotheby's
    Fine Books, Manuscripts & More
    Available for Immediate Purchase
    Sotheby’s: J.R.R. Tolkien. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy. 11,135 USD
    Sotheby’s: Edgar Allan Poe. The Raven and Other Poems, 1845. 33,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Leo Tolstoy, Clara Bow. War and Peace, 1886. 22,500 USD
    Sotheby’s: Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. Adventures of Sherlock Holmes, 1902. 7,500 USD
    Sotheby’s: F. Scott Fitzgerald. This Side of Paradise, The Great Gatsby, and Others, 1920-1941. 24,180 USD
  • Freeman’s | Hindman
    Fine Printed Books and Manuscripts, Including Americana
    November 14
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: LEROUX, Gaston. The Phantom of the Opera. FIRST AM. ED, FIRST ISSUE IN THE VERY RARE DUST JACKET. 1911. $6,000 – 8,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD, John. A Monograph of the Trochilidae...Humming-Birds. L., [1849-] 1861. $60,000 – 80,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: A COMPLETE RUN of Limited Editions Club publications, v.p. [mostly New York], 1929-2010. $50,000 – 60,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: ORWELL, George. Nineteen Eighty-Four. Lon., 1949. FIRST EDITION IN A VERY FINE DUST JACKET. $6,000 – 8,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD. A Monograph of the Ramphastidae...Toucans. L., [1852-] 54. SECOND ED. $35,000 – 45,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: The Federalist. NY, 1788. FIRST EDITION, THICK PAPER COPY. $60,000 – 80,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: SELBY. Plates to Selby’s Illustrations of British Ornithology. Edin., [1833-] 34. $20,000 – 30,000.
  • Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    APRES DE MANNEVILLETTE
    Le Neptune Oriental
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    CASSAS
    Eaux fortes de la Sicile et quelques vues d’Espagne
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    CASSINI DE THURY
    Carte générale et particulière de la France.
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    JOUY; GARNERAY
    Vues des côtes de France dans l'Océan et dans la Méditerranée
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    LA PÉROUSE
    Voyage autour du monde
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    LE GENTIL DE LA GALAISIERE
    Voyage dans les Mers de l’Inde
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    LICENT
    Hoang Ho, Pai Ho, Loan Ho, Leao Ho. Itinéraires suivis dans le bassin du golfe du Pei Tcheuly
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    FRENCH SCHOOL FROM THE 19th CENTURY
    Panorama d’Athènes
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    PEETERS
    Description des principales villes, havres et isles du golfe de Venise
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    PÉRON; FREYCINET
    Voyage de découverte aux terres australes
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    STACKELBERG
    La Grèce : vues pittoresques et topographiques.
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    VALENTINER
    Atlas des Sonnensystems.

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