• Swann, Nov. 14: Stephen Sondheim, autograph musical quotation signed and inscribed, 4 bars from “Send in the Clowns,” 1986.
    Swann, Nov. 14: George Washington, autograph letter signed to Robert Morris, preparing for attack on Philadelphia, 1777.
    Swann, Nov. 14: Autograph album containing over 250 signatures by members of 29th U.S. Congress, 1845.
    Swann, Nov. 14: Charles “The Bold,” letter signed to Duke of Milan written during Burgundian Wars, 1475.
    Swann, Nov. 14: Deng Xiaoping, TIME magazine “Man of the Year” issue signed and dated, 1979.
    Swann, Nov. 14: Theodor Herzl, autograph letter signed to prospective tutor of his children, 1902.
    Swann, Nov. 14: Bourienne’s Memoirs of Napoleon Bonaparte extra illustrated including 1798 letter signed by Napoleon after Battle of the Nile, 1836.
    Swann, Nov. 14: George Minot, autograph manuscript signed, diary kept during European trip to claim Nobel Prize, 1934.
    Swann, Nov. 14: Thomas Jefferson, autograph letter signed, introducing George Washington’s personal secretary Tobias Lear, 1793.
    Swann, Nov. 14: Winston Churchill, A History of the English-Speaking Peoples, signed in second volume, first edition, 1956-58.
    Swann, Nov. 14: John Steinbeck, late typescript drafts of 5 chapters from his posthumously published tales of King Arthur, 1959.
    Swann, Nov. 14: H.G. Wells, group of 14 of his books signed to his mistress Rebecca West or the son they had together, 1910s-40s.
  • Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: AUDUBON, JOHN JAMES. Red-Shouldered Hawk. London: R. Havell, Jr., 1829. $2,000 - $3,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: STEWART, WILLIAM DRUMMOND, SIR. Altowan; or, Incidents of Life and Adventure in the Rocky Mountain... New York, 1846. PRESENTATION COPY. $800 - $1,200
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: WILLUGHBY & RAY, JOHN. The Ornithology of Francis Willughby in three books... London, Martyn, 1678. $800 - $1,200
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: SUSAN B. ANTHONY. Autograph Quotation Signed, on equal rights "for men and women," Rochester, 1898. $1,000 - $1,500
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: FRANKLIN, BENJAMIN. Autograph Letter Signed integrally to Le Comte de Milly arranging a meeting with M. Broignard, Passy, 1778. $10,000 - $15,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: FRANKLIN, JEFFERSON, & ADAMS. Mansucript Signed by all three architects of the American ideal, requesting a Treaty of Amity and Commerce. $750,000 - $1,000,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: LINCOLN, ABRAHAM. Endorsement Signed, a pardon for a Confederate soldier, February 6, 1865. $4,000 - $6,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: NAPOLEON FORMALLY RATIFIES THE LOUISIANA PURCHASE. Document Signed ("James Monroe," "Robt. R. Livingston" and "Barbé-Marbois"). $100,000 - $200,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: JAMES MONROE ON THE DIFFICULTIES OF JAY'S TREATY. Autograph Letter Signed to Thomas Pinckney, Paris, January 17, 1795. $15,000 - $25,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: GIDEON WELLES FIRST HAND ACCOUNT OF FORT PICKENS AND FORT SUMTER ON THE EVE OF CIVIL WAR. Autograph Manuscript, 44 pp, c.1870. $4,000 - $6,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: SIGNED BY BORGES. Labyrinths: Selected Stories & Other Writings. 1962. First book publication in English. $4,000 - $6,000
    Bonhams, Nov. 2-12: LORENZO DOW TURNER'S COPY. LOCKE, ALAIN. The New Negro: an Interpretation. 1925. $1,000 - $1,500
  • Forum Auctions
    A Visual and Historical Voyage into the Ottoman World:
    The Library of a Gentleman
    14th November
    Forum, Nov. 14: Preziosi (Amedeo). Stamboul: Recollections of Eastern Life, first edition, Paris, Lemercier, 1858. £6,000 to £8,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Mayr (Heinrich von). Malerische Ansichten aus dem Orient. Vues Pittoresques de l'Orient, first edition in the original 10 parts, Munich, Paris & Leipzig, [1839-40]. £10,000 to £15,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Lewis (John Frederick). Illustrations of Constantinople, made during a Residence in that City &c. in the Years 1835-6, first edition, [1838]. £6,000 to £8,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Dodwell (Edward). Views in Greece, first edition, ordinary format, Rodwell and Martin, 1821. £8,000 to £12,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Cassas (Louis François). [Voyage Pittoresque de la Syrie, de la Phoenicie, de la Palæstube et de la Basse-Égypte], 3 vol., first edition, [Paris], [1799]. £8,000 to £12,000.
    Forum Auctions
    A Visual and Historical Voyage into the Ottoman World:
    The Library of a Gentleman
    14th November
    Forum, Nov. 14: La Chappelle (Georges). Recueil de Divers Portraits des Principales Dames de la Porte du Grand Turc, first edition, Paris, 1648. £8,000 to £12,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Fossati (Gaspard). Aya Sophia Constantinople as recently restored by order of H.M. the Sultan Abdul Medjid, first edition, ordinary format, 1852. £6,000 to £8,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Pertusier (Charles). Promenades Pittoresques dans Constantinople et sur les Rives du Bosphore, 4 vol., inc Atlas, first edition, Paris, H. Nicolle, 1815-17. £6,000 to £8,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Brindesi (Jean). Souvenirs de Constantinople, first edition, [Paris], [1855-60]. £4,000 to £6,000.
    Forum, Nov. 14: Le Bruyn (Cornelius). Voyage au Levant, first French edition, Delft, Henri de Kroonevelt, 1700. £3,000 to £4,000.

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - April - 2014 Issue

How to Get Current Price Estimates from Older Auction Records

Actual prices and current estimates for the ultra-expensive first edition of Audubon's Birds of America (click to enlarge).

Actual prices and current estimates for the ultra-expensive first edition of Audubon's Birds of America (click to enlarge).

Here is a feature that will help subscribers to the AE Bibliographic Database (or future subscribers) get a better handle on values. The AE Database is a compilation of records, mostly priced auction lots, from the field of books and works on paper. It is now over 5 million records strong, and growing almost every day or two. It is unique.

 

When you do a search of the AED, you will see a button at the top left, just above the results, that reads “Get Current Estimate.” To get a current estimate, either check those records for which you seek one, or check the box at the top that will check them all. Then click the button. Your current estimates will appear. What, then, is a “current estimate?”

 

A “current estimate” is a guideline for what older auction prices represent in value in today's dollars. It is not just an indexing for inflation, adjusting yesterday's prices based on the consumer price index or the price of milk. Instead, it adjusts old prices based on the rate of inflation (or deflation) in the price of books over time. That is where the 5 million database records come in. They have been used to compute median prices for years as far back as 1914. That has enabled us to calculate something of a consumer price index for books, rather than groceries or housing or some other unrelated commodity.

 

Now this is going to be an estimate, as perfection is not possible. It will take an old price and calculate an estimate based on the appreciation of a typical book, but not all books are equal. Just as all elements of the consumer price index have not appreciated at equal amounts, so have books appreciated at different rates. In general, the old adage that “the rich get richer” is true of books too. The most valuable books generally appreciate more than average. Books by authors once in greater favor than they are today may appreciate more slowly, if at all. If more recent auction prices are higher than estimates for older ones, that is a sign of above average appreciation. That book may also be an above average investment going forward. One where recent sales are below estimates from older sales may indicate a book losing favor. You may want to be more cautious in what you pay for a book in this category than one appreciating faster than average.

 

The Get Current Estimate feature also translates prices in other currencies to U.S. dollars so all records can be compared. Conversions are made using exchange rates at the time of sale (not current exchange rates) for accuracy in estimates.

 

Here are two more numbers you will see when you get a current estimate:

 

1. Average Current Estimate. This computes the average current estimate of all the records you have selected. For this to provide a reasonable estimate, you need to make sure you have only selected apples, not oranges. In other words, if you get the estimate for a particular title, but it includes a mix of first and later editions, some signed copies, etc., though each individual estimate will be reasonable, averaging them together will not. You need to select only comparable copies and eliminate the rest to get a solid average estimate.

 

2. Probability of Reappearance. Here is another useful feature, but as with average current estimate above, you need to select only comparable records. This formula looks at how often the book has shown up at auction in the past and computes roughly how often it can be expected to show up in the future. The formula is weighted to more recent results as books which may have shown up frequently a half or even a century ago may have mostly disappeared from the market today. This can be very helpful in determining whether to buy a copy of a book. If it appears at auction every year or two, or maybe multiple times per year, there is little need to chase a copy that is more than fully priced. If it is a book you seriously want, but it appears rarely on the market, perhaps only once every five, ten or more years, you may want to be more aggressive in your pursuit of a copy now being offered. You may have to wait a long time for another chance.

 

Those of you who are already using this feature may have noticed current estimates rose recently. The median price of books rose 7% last year, so older prices have had their current estimates raised by this amount to reflect the recent upward trend in prices. However, they have not yet caught up with prices prior to the recession of 2008. You will still find current estimates lower than actual prices paid during the years 2004-2007, with the largest drop being from prices in 2007, the year before the big recession.

Rare Book Monthly

  • Doyle
    Stage & Screen
    November 14 & 15
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A studio-sanctioned Darth Vader Touring Costume from The Empire Strikes Back. $50,000 to $100,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: An original Al Hirschfeld's illustration of the cast of On Golden Pond. $4,000 to $6,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: The largest trove of personal Grace Kelly letters to come to market. $60,000 to $80,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: An Important Archive of Musical Manuscripts of Truman Capote and Harold Arlen's House of Flowers. $40,000 to $60,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: The archive of an original Merrily We Roll Along Broadway cast member. $5,000 to $10,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Jerry Herman's Yamaha Model C7 Ebonized Grand Piano. $6,000 to $9,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A large group of Jerry Herman musical posters. $300 to $500.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Group of awards presented to Jerry Herman. $300 to $400.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: Six pages of original art for "The MAD Game of Basebrawl," a complete story published in MAD #167, pages 31-36, June 1974. $3,000 to $4,000.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A MAD book made for Al Jaffee, containing original art and writings from many MAD contributors. 2011. $1,200 to $1,800.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: A Jaffee-themed MAD Fold-In - "What honor should the creator of the MAD Fold-Ins be given?" $800 to $1,200.
    Doyle, Nov. 14-15: MAD Fold-In - "What developing news story has many Americans totally transfixed?" $800 to $1,200.
  • Sotheby's
    Fine Books, Manuscripts & More
    Available for Immediate Purchase
    Sotheby’s: J.R.R. Tolkien. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy. 11,135 USD
    Sotheby’s: Edgar Allan Poe. The Raven and Other Poems, 1845. 33,000 USD
    Sotheby’s: Leo Tolstoy, Clara Bow. War and Peace, 1886. 22,500 USD
    Sotheby’s: Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. Adventures of Sherlock Holmes, 1902. 7,500 USD
    Sotheby’s: F. Scott Fitzgerald. This Side of Paradise, The Great Gatsby, and Others, 1920-1941. 24,180 USD
  • Freeman’s | Hindman
    Fine Printed Books and Manuscripts, Including Americana
    November 14
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: LEROUX, Gaston. The Phantom of the Opera. FIRST AM. ED, FIRST ISSUE IN THE VERY RARE DUST JACKET. 1911. $6,000 – 8,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD, John. A Monograph of the Trochilidae...Humming-Birds. L., [1849-] 1861. $60,000 – 80,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: A COMPLETE RUN of Limited Editions Club publications, v.p. [mostly New York], 1929-2010. $50,000 – 60,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: ORWELL, George. Nineteen Eighty-Four. Lon., 1949. FIRST EDITION IN A VERY FINE DUST JACKET. $6,000 – 8,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: GOULD. A Monograph of the Ramphastidae...Toucans. L., [1852-] 54. SECOND ED. $35,000 – 45,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: The Federalist. NY, 1788. FIRST EDITION, THICK PAPER COPY. $60,000 – 80,000.
    Freeman’s | Hindman, Nov. 14: SELBY. Plates to Selby’s Illustrations of British Ornithology. Edin., [1833-] 34. $20,000 – 30,000.
  • Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    APRES DE MANNEVILLETTE
    Le Neptune Oriental
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    CASSAS
    Eaux fortes de la Sicile et quelques vues d’Espagne
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    CASSINI DE THURY
    Carte générale et particulière de la France.
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    JOUY; GARNERAY
    Vues des côtes de France dans l'Océan et dans la Méditerranée
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    LA PÉROUSE
    Voyage autour du monde
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    LE GENTIL DE LA GALAISIERE
    Voyage dans les Mers de l’Inde
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    LICENT
    Hoang Ho, Pai Ho, Loan Ho, Leao Ho. Itinéraires suivis dans le bassin du golfe du Pei Tcheuly
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    FRENCH SCHOOL FROM THE 19th CENTURY
    Panorama d’Athènes
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    PEETERS
    Description des principales villes, havres et isles du golfe de Venise
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    PÉRON; FREYCINET
    Voyage de découverte aux terres australes
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    STACKELBERG
    La Grèce : vues pittoresques et topographiques.
    Gros & Delettrez, 7 November:
    VALENTINER
    Atlas des Sonnensystems.
  • Forum Auctions
    Online Sale:
    The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper
    Ending 7th November, 2024
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). The Thirteen Problems, first edition, The Crime Club, 1932. £15,000 to £20,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Dumb Witness, first edition, 1937. £3,000 to £4,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Cards on the Table, first edition, The Crime Club, 1936. £2,000 to £3,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: [Carr (John Dickson)], "Carter Dickson" and John Rhode. Drop to his Death, first edition, Heinemann, [1939]. £600 to £800.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Berkeley (Anthony). Jumping Jenny, first edition, Hodder and Stoughton, 1933. £800 to £1,200.
    Forum Auctions
    Online Sale:
    The Detective Fiction Collection of John Cooper
    Ending 7th November, 2024
    Forum, Nov. 7: Marsh (Ngaio). Overture to Death, first edition, The Crime Club, 1939. £600 to £800.
    Forum, Nov. 7: [Day-Lewis (Cecil)] "Nicholas Blake". The Beast Must Die, first edition, 1938. £750 to £1,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Brand (Christianna). Green for Danger, first edition, signed presentation inscription from the author, John Lane the Bodley Head, 1945. £600 to £800.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Christie (Agatha). Murder is Easy, first edition, signed by the author, 1939. £3,000 to £4,000.
    Forum, Nov. 7: Sayers (Dorothy L.) Lord Peter Views the Body, first edition, Gollancz, 1928. £6,000 to £8,000.
  • Desa Unicum, Nov. 13: Chronograph Wristwatches. Precious memories of the 20th Century / Cronografi da Polso. Preziose Memorie del XX Secolo, 2013. €3,000 to €5,000. Starting Bid: €10.
    Desa Unicum, Nov. 13: Lanthemann, Joseph. Modigliani 1884-1920. A Catalogue Raisonné, Barcelona, 1970. €320 to €380. Starting Bid: €10.
    Desa Unicum, Nov. 13: Warhol, Andy. The Philosophy of Andy Warhol (from A to B and back again), New York, 1975. Signed by the author. €500 to €600. Starting Bid: €10.
    Desa Unicum, Nov. 13: Vitali, Lamberto. Morandi: Catalogo Generale. I & II, Mediolan, 1983. €1,100 to €1,300. Starting Bid: €10.
    Desa Unicum, Nov. 13: Goldstein, Ann. Christopher Wool, Los Angeles, 1998. €320 to €380. Starting Bid: €10.
    Desa Unicum, Nov. 13: Celant, Germano. Piero Manzoni, 1989. €320 to €360. Starting Bid: €10.
    Desa Unicum, Nov. 13: Ernst, Max. Oeuvre-Katalog. Das Graphische Werk, Cologne, 1975. €420 to €480. Starting Bid: €10.

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