• <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Bohr (Niels). <i>On the Constitution of Atoms and Molecules,</i> first edition, presentation copy, offprint 1913. £20,000 to £30,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Shakespeare's Falstaff.- Henry V & Sir John Fastolf. Indenture agreement appointing Fastolf as Keeper of the Bastille of St Anthony at Paris, manuscript in French, 1421. £10,000 to £15,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> World.- Purchas (Samuel). <i>Purchas his Pilgrimes. In Five Books...,</i> 5 vol., first edition, 7 folding engraved maps, contemporary calf, by William Stansby for Henrie Fetherstone, 1625-26. £20,000 to £30,000
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Book of Hours.- Use of Rouen, manuscript on vellum, in Latin and French, illuminated with 14 full-page miniatures by the workshop or follower of the Maitre de l'Echevinage, Rouen, 1480s. £20,000 t0 £30,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Giese (Raban, ?scholar and medical doctor). Album Amicorum of drawing on his travels and acquaintances in Europe 1618-21, 134 watercolour illustrations including c. 60 professional miniatures, 1618-39. £30,000 to £40,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Jones (David). 14 Autograph Letters signed, 1952-68; and a small quantity of ephemera (sm. qty). £6,000 to £8,000
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Constable (John). Various Subjects of Landscape, Characteristic of English Scenery, signed presentation inscription from Constable, 1833. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Rembrandt van Rijn (1606-1669). The Descent from the Cross: Second Plate, etching and engraving, 1633. £6,000 to £8,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Salvin (Francis Henry) and William Brodrick. <i>Falconry in the British Isles,</i> second edition, William Brodrick's copy with 3 original watercolours by him, 1873. £8,000 to £12,000
    <center><b>Forum Auctions<br>Fine Books, Manuscripts and Works<br>on Paper including Books from The Collection of The Garden Ltd<br>November 21, 2019</b>
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> China.- Helman (Isidore Stanislas Henri). <i>Suite des seize estampes representant les conquetes de l'Empereur de la Chine,</i> 1783-88. £10,000 to £15,000
    <b>Forum Auctions, Nov. 21:</b> Pratt (Edward Roger, 1789-1863). Album of 28 watercolours and other works on paper from a journey to ancient sites and monuments in the Mediterranean, [c.1830 and later]. £3,000 to £5,000
  • <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b><br>Dr. Seuss, pen, ink & watercolor, calendar illustration, Thomas D. Murphy Company, 1937. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Georges Lepape, <i>Sur la Terrasse,</i> gouache & pencil, cover for <i>Vogue,</i> 1930. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Charles Dana Gibson, <i>The Coming Game, Yale vs. Vassar,</i> pen & ink, for <i>Life</i> magazine, 1895. $2,000 to $3,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b><br>H.A. Rey, color pencil, charcoal, watercolor & gouache, for <i>Rafi et les 9 singes,</i> 1939. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Ernest H. Shepard, pen & ink, for Kenneth Grahame’s <i>Bertie’s Escapade,</i> 1949. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Charles Schulz, <i>The Biggest Star Measured So Far,</i> ink & wash, original <i>Peanuts</i> cartoon, published 1961. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Saul Steinberg, <i>12 Biographies, A to B,</i> pen & ink with collage, final illustration in his book <i>The Labyrinth,</i> 1960. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b><br>Jo Mielziner, <i>A Streetcar Named Desire,</i> watercolor, graphite & gouache, first color study for the award-winning 1947 production. $7,000 to $10,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Charles Addams, <i>Nevermore,</i> watercolor & ink, for <i>The New Yorker,</i> 1973. $12,000 to $18,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> James Montgomery Flagg, <i>I Should Worry,</i> watercolor, gouache & graphite, cover for <i>Judge</i> magazine, 1914. $5,000 to $7,500.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Edward Gorey, <i>Swan Lake, Hunters/Siegfried, Van Rothbart,</i> watercolor, pen & ink, costume designs, 1975. $8,000 to $12,000.
    <b>Swann Auction Galleries Dec 10:</b> Ludwig Bemelmans, <i>Sketch for Madeline,</i> gouache & ink. $6,000 to $9,000.
  • <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b> Fust-Schöffer-Bibel from Gutenberg-Press, 1462. Est: € 1,000,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>J. W. Weinmann, <i>Phytanthoza-Iconographia,</i> 1735-45. Est: € 60,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>O. Kokoschka, <i>Die träumenden Knaben,</i> 1917. Est: € 10,000
    <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>Z. Lilius, <i>Orbis breviarium,</i> 1493. <br>Est: € 10,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b> <i>Gazette du Bon Ton,</i> 1912-22.<br>Est: € 14,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>M. Chagall, <i>Daphnis & Chloé,</i> 1961. Est: € 100,000
    <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>C. Ptolemaeus, <i>Geographie,</i> 1513.<br>Est: € 100,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>E. L. Kirchner, <i>Umbra vitae,</i> 1924.<br>Est: € 6,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>J. Miró, <i>Midi le trèfle blanc,</i> 1968. Est: € 2,000
    <center><b>Ketterer Rare Books<br>Auction on November 25th</b>
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b> Clemens V., <i>Constitutiones,</i> 1471.<br>Est: € 14,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>C. Gesner, <i>Tierbuch, Vogelbuch, Fischbuch,</i> 1563-81. Est: € 5,000
    <b>Ketterer Rare Books, November 25:</b><br>J. Itten, <i>Utopia,</i> 1921. Est: € 2,000

Rare Book Monthly

Articles - April - 2014 Issue

How to Get Current Price Estimates from Older Auction Records

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Actual prices and current estimates for the ultra-expensive first edition of Audubon's Birds of America (click to enlarge).

Here is a feature that will help subscribers to the AE Bibliographic Database (or future subscribers) get a better handle on values. The AE Database is a compilation of records, mostly priced auction lots, from the field of books and works on paper. It is now over 5 million records strong, and growing almost every day or two. It is unique.

 

When you do a search of the AED, you will see a button at the top left, just above the results, that reads “Get Current Estimate.” To get a current estimate, either check those records for which you seek one, or check the box at the top that will check them all. Then click the button. Your current estimates will appear. What, then, is a “current estimate?”

 

A “current estimate” is a guideline for what older auction prices represent in value in today's dollars. It is not just an indexing for inflation, adjusting yesterday's prices based on the consumer price index or the price of milk. Instead, it adjusts old prices based on the rate of inflation (or deflation) in the price of books over time. That is where the 5 million database records come in. They have been used to compute median prices for years as far back as 1914. That has enabled us to calculate something of a consumer price index for books, rather than groceries or housing or some other unrelated commodity.

 

Now this is going to be an estimate, as perfection is not possible. It will take an old price and calculate an estimate based on the appreciation of a typical book, but not all books are equal. Just as all elements of the consumer price index have not appreciated at equal amounts, so have books appreciated at different rates. In general, the old adage that “the rich get richer” is true of books too. The most valuable books generally appreciate more than average. Books by authors once in greater favor than they are today may appreciate more slowly, if at all. If more recent auction prices are higher than estimates for older ones, that is a sign of above average appreciation. That book may also be an above average investment going forward. One where recent sales are below estimates from older sales may indicate a book losing favor. You may want to be more cautious in what you pay for a book in this category than one appreciating faster than average.

 

The Get Current Estimate feature also translates prices in other currencies to U.S. dollars so all records can be compared. Conversions are made using exchange rates at the time of sale (not current exchange rates) for accuracy in estimates.

 

Here are two more numbers you will see when you get a current estimate:

 

1. Average Current Estimate. This computes the average current estimate of all the records you have selected. For this to provide a reasonable estimate, you need to make sure you have only selected apples, not oranges. In other words, if you get the estimate for a particular title, but it includes a mix of first and later editions, some signed copies, etc., though each individual estimate will be reasonable, averaging them together will not. You need to select only comparable copies and eliminate the rest to get a solid average estimate.

 

2. Probability of Reappearance. Here is another useful feature, but as with average current estimate above, you need to select only comparable records. This formula looks at how often the book has shown up at auction in the past and computes roughly how often it can be expected to show up in the future. The formula is weighted to more recent results as books which may have shown up frequently a half or even a century ago may have mostly disappeared from the market today. This can be very helpful in determining whether to buy a copy of a book. If it appears at auction every year or two, or maybe multiple times per year, there is little need to chase a copy that is more than fully priced. If it is a book you seriously want, but it appears rarely on the market, perhaps only once every five, ten or more years, you may want to be more aggressive in your pursuit of a copy now being offered. You may have to wait a long time for another chance.

 

Those of you who are already using this feature may have noticed current estimates rose recently. The median price of books rose 7% last year, so older prices have had their current estimates raised by this amount to reflect the recent upward trend in prices. However, they have not yet caught up with prices prior to the recession of 2008. You will still find current estimates lower than actual prices paid during the years 2004-2007, with the largest drop being from prices in 2007, the year before the big recession.

Rare Book Monthly

  • <center><b>Chiswick Auctions<br>Books & Works on Paper,<br>to include Travel, Sciences, <br>Sport & Illustrated Art<br>November 20, 2019</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> [Herberstein, Sigismund von, & al.] <i>Rerum Moscoviticarum…,</i> 4 plates, illustrations, folio, Andreas Wevhelius, Frankfurt, 1600. £1,500 to £2,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Bowen (Emmanuel) & Owen (John). <i>Britannia Depicta…,</i> fourth edition, engraved title and 273 maps, 4to, Thomas Bowles, 1753. £700 to £900
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Geographical Game.- Jefferys (Thomas). <i>The Royal Geographical Pastime or the Tour of Europe,</i> FIRST EDITION, engraving of Europe, map c. 507 x 665 mm, Thomas Jefferys, 1768. £600 to £800
    <center><b>Chiswick Auctions<br>Books & Works on Paper,<br>to include Travel, Sciences, <br>Sport & Illustrated Art<br>November 20, 2019</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Germany.- Homann (Johann Baptist). <i>Atlas Novus Terrarum Orbis Imperia... Atlas von Deutschland,</i> engraved half title, 87 maps only, folio, Erben, Nuremberg, 1753. £8,000 to £10,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Iceland [Løvenørns (Poul)]. <i>Beskrivelse over den Iislandske…,</i> 10 engraved maps and plates, vignettes, 4to, Copenhagen, F. W. Thiele, 1788. £600 to £800
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Lewis (John Frederick). <i>Illustrations of Constantinople…,</i> FIRST EDITION, frontispiece and 26 views folio, T. McLean, D.& P. Colnaghi & John F. Lewis, [1838]. £2,000 to £3,000
    <center><b>Chiswick Auctions<br>Books & Works on Paper,<br>to include Travel, Sciences, <br>Sport & Illustrated Art<br>November 20, 2019</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Lilford (Lord, Thomas Littleton Powys, 4th Baron). <i>Coloured Figures of the Birds of the British Islands,</i> 7 vol., second edition, [one of 450 sets], 421 plates, large 8vo, 1891-97. £1,800 to £2,200
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Londres [panorama], engraving, 350 x 520mm, chez Baltazar Moncornet, Paris, c.1666-68. £800 to £1,200
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Van Keulen (Joannes). <i> Niewe Pas Caarte Strekkende van Pta Cataon tot Pta Lamtaon…,</i> copper engraved map, hand coloured, 510 x 585mm, Amsterdam, [1753]. £1,200 to £1,500
    <center><b>Chiswick Auctions<br>Books & Works on Paper,<br>to include Travel, Sciences, <br>Sport & Illustrated Art<br>November 20, 2019</b>
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Goethe (Johann Wolfgang von). <i> Prologue dans le ciel, Traduction de Gerard de Nerval…,</i> 11 double sheets with calligraphic handwriting, 33 fine gouaches, Philippe Gonin, [Paris, c. 1932]. £400 to £600
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Murphy (Jill, author and illustrator) ARR. <i> Peace at Last & The Large Family: All in One Piece,</i> 10 pieces of original artwork from the two books, 1980 & 1987 (12). £1,800 to £2,000
    <b>Chiswick Auctions, Nov. 20:</b> Rembrandt (Harmensz. van Rijn). Christ at Emmaus: the larger plate, etching and drypoint, 212 x 161mm, sheet 225 x 170mm, 1654. £1,000 to £1,500
  • <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> [Peter I, Tsar]. <i>Simboly i emblemata ukazom i blagopovedenii imperatora Petra Alekseevicha [Symbola et emblemata jussu atque auspiciis Petri Alexeidis].</i> Amsterdam, 1705. £30,000 to £40,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> Charlemagne, Adolf. Benefice d'Adieu de Madame Naptal. [St Petersburg: 16th February 1873]. £30,000 to £40,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> [Military. Album.] [An album of drawings of weapons and their accessories, drawn from nature by the Second Cadets Corps.] St Petersburg, 1800. £100,000 to £150,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> Pushkin, Alexander. <i>Evgenii Onegin.</i> St Petersburg: Dep. of Public Education, 1825-1832. £100,000 to £150,000
    <b>Christie’s London, Nov. 27:</b> Sumarokov, Pavel. <i>Dosugi krymskogo sud’i ili vtoroe puteshestvie v Tavridu. [The Leisure of a Crimean Judge or a Second Tour to Tauris].</i> St Petersburg: Imperial Press, 1803-5. £50,000 to £80,000
  • <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> SHAKESPEARE, WILLIAM. <i>Macbeth: A Tragedy.</i> London, 1673. FIRST SEPARATE AND FIRST QUARTO EDITION. THE CHARLTON HESTON COPY. $80,000 to $120,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> HEMINGWAY, ERNEST. <i>In Our Time.</i> Paris, 1924. FIRST EDITION, PRESENTATION COPY. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> HAWTHORNE, NATHANIEL. <i>Fanshawe, A Tale.</i> Boston, 1828. FIRST EDITION OF AUTHOR'S FIRST BOOK. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> THOREAU, HENRY DAVID. <i>Walden; Or, Life in the Woods.</i> Boston, 1854. FINE COPY OF THE FIRST EDITION. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> SHAKESPEARE, WILLIAM. <i>Comedies, Histories, and Tragedies.</i> London, 1685. THE FOURTH FOLIO, Brewster/Bentley issue. $20,000 to $30,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> STEIG, WILLIAM. Original maquette and 58 finished drawings for <i>The Agony in the Kindergarten,</i> one of Steig's most important books. $10,000 to $15,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> VERNE, JULES. <i>A Journey to the Centre of the Earth.</i> New York & London, 1872. FIRST EDITION, RARE AMERICAN ISSUE, with Scribner & Welford cancel title. $5,000 to $8,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 5:</b> KING, STEPHEN. <i>Carrie.</i> New York, 1974. INSCRIBED FIRST EDITION, OF AUTHOR'S FIRST BOOK. $1,200 to $1,800.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> APPLE MACINTOSH PROTOTYPE. 1983. The earliest known Macintosh with "Twiggy" drive, one of only two known working machines. $120,000 to $180,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> PLATO. <i>Timaeus</i> [AND] <i>Critias</i> [from Ficini's 1484 Opera]. A LANDMARK OF SCIENTIFIC THOUGHT. $80,000 to $120,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> LOVELACE, AUGUSTA ADA. Sketch of the Analytical Engine Invented by Charles Babbage Esq. London, 1843. FIRST EDITION, JOURNAL ISSUE, MOST IMPORTANT PAPER IN EARLY DIGITAL COMPUTING. $15,000 to $20,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> APPLE-1 COMPUTER. Signed by Steve Wozniak, used in development of Apple II. $200,000 to $300,000.
    <b>Bonhams, Dec. 4:</b> DARWIN, CHARLES. 1809-1882. <i>On the Origin of Species By Means of Natural Selection.</i> London, 1859. FIRST EDITION. $80,000 to $120,000.
  • <center><b>Skinner Auctions <br>Fine Books & Manuscripts <i>online</i><br> November 11-17
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Auctions <br>Fine Books & Manuscripts <i>online</i><br> November 11-17
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Auctions <br>Fine Books & Manuscripts <i>online</i><br> November 11-17
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Auctions <br>Fine Books & Manuscripts <i>online</i><br> November 11-17
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>
    <center><b>Skinner Rare Book Auction November 11-17</b>

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