In planning the sale, to mitigate potential weakness primarily due to the economy, I requested and Bonhams agreed to provide extended terms to buyers. They prepared an exceptional catalogue and conducted a well organized publicity campaign. They purchased ads in various media including a full back page in color in the New York Times national edition. After the auction some suggested that the sale was too large. If that's the case it bodes ill for the millions of books, manuscripts, maps and ephemera that will change hands over the next twenty-five years as baby-boomer dealers dispose and retire. In my view the number of lots sold at auction will increase significantly over the next decade.
For this reality which for me amounts to a certainty, the internet will be an ever better, ever more important tool and will need to be. Larger volumes of material will need larger audiences to absorb them. Today the net, as far as collectible books are concerned, is only now becoming important. In a few years it will be indispensible. For this sale Bonhams' repertoire of traditional tools carried the day but we are on the bridge to the widely dispersed and easily accessed electronic tomorrow. The sound of horsemen rattle in our ears and there will be no turning back.
In a perfect world information is widely known but this is not yet the case. The internet has made enormous strides in disseminating facts and data but is not yet the crucial factor in how institutions, dealers and collectors connect with collectible material. Nevertheless the web gathers strength quickly. In this interim those who use the internet extensively, often aggressively buy or bid but limit themselves to current valuations found on AE or personally construct them from research. This makes absolute sense. The basis of collecting should be logic, not whim and the market is moving in that direction. My sense is that 10 years ago internet penetration for the rare book field was 5% and today perhaps 40%. In 5 years it will be 70% and in 10 years 95%. Information increasingly drives the market and it is only a matter of time before those who want it have it. The effect will be to re-prioritize by relevance, rarity, importance and price and generally take prices higher. In the short term inefficient distribution of information may restrain buying but the market is rapidly becoming efficient and I believe this sale will aid in the transition.
In the short term the sale confirmed that the re-absorption rate for material moving from collectors through the rooms to acquirers is limited both by price and volume. Those who acquired did so both because they coveted the material [as I did when I acquired] and/or saw the books as appealing investments. For those who acquired, whether out of passion or as investments, these purchases will prove to be good decisions.
