Sold! Auctions Review
Sold! Auctions Review
Estimating a sale such as The Zamorano 80 is certainly a challenge. Even without the potential complications caused by such things as the economy and the space shuttle disaster that occurred just before the sale, giving potential buyers realistic guidance about what they can expect to pay for such books in such a setting from such a collection is practically a unique exercise. There would be some guidance from previous sales for some of the material, but in the context of an entire Zamorano 80 collection, the bidding dynamics are probably a little tricky to predict.
For the Volkmann sale, Sloan altered her estimating technique. In the Clifford sale, she used traditional estimates that fell within fairly narrow bands (e.g., $300-450). For this sale, her estimates were almost always derived with an upper figure that was always twice the lower figure (e.g., $300-600). Taking the primary lots only, in the Clifford sale, 22 sold within their estimate range, 55 exceeded their high estimate, and only three (including the one bought in) went below their estimate. By contrast, in the Volkmann sale, 46 lots sold within their estimate range, only 29 exceeded their high estimate, and 5 (including the four bought in) went below their estimate. Of the fairly expensive lots in the Volkmann sale, nearly every one of them sold within the estimate range Sloan provided. Thus, over half the lots in this unique grouping of material sold for what Sloan predicted. The difficulty is ascertaining the low estimate, of course, and Sloan did a superb job of predicting that figure. Because such numbers probably depend on the dynamics of the bidders more than on traditional measures of value, nobody can predict such prices as Volkmann lot #17, the copy of Twain’s Jumping Frog that went for twice its already generous high estimate.