The sale is now 9 minutes in and I'm thinking several options are off the table. Going into the sale I saw the possibilities this way.

1. $500,000 net from a sale of $600,000 that sees only a small number of items sell. Most of the material would return to San Francisco, This would suggest a failure for the market, Bloomsbury and AE. I doubted such an outcome but rated it 1/100.

2. $1,400,000 was the everything sells at the reserve possibility. Both Richard Austin and Tom Lamb of Bloomsbury have told me "it won't happen." Going into the sale they are increasingly optimistic. 1/10

3. $2,000,000 to 2,400,000 80% of the lots sell for prices that confirm a bottom in the rare book market is in place. This would be a close to break-even on the 10 year investment in these books. Given that the market has weakened substantially this will be encouraging for the field overall. We all get to eat - at MacDonald's. 7/10

4. $2,500,000+ While a possibility I never really give it much thought. Nate DeMarais of Michael Sharpe in Pasadena called in early November to say the sale was a lock for $3.4 million. I told him "from your lips to God's ears." A few weeks later I ran into Michael Vinson at the Boston Book Fair and he said the sale was going to do very well, "$3.0 million anyway." They are about to be proven correct but, as the sale gets under way the $2.5 million option is a 1/5 possibility, $3.5 million 1/100.

Lot 7 is an obscure work by Ludovico di Varthema, "Novum itinerarium Arthiopiae...", first account of a pilgrimmage to Mecca. The book was published after 25 May, 1511. It's No. 36 in Church but its connection to the new world obscure. I bought it at Sotheby's London in 2000 for $54,000. Today it brings the same price.

In 1997 and 1998 I purchased a group of items from H. P. Kraus. They will prove to be several of the stars today. Lot 8 is Johannes Stobnicza's "Introductio in Ptholomei Cosmographia[m]cu[m]." This was item 18 in Kraus' Catalogue 185. I paid $13,200 for the privilege of ownership and it sells today for $$66,000.

Lot 9 is another H. P. Kraus item. It's Johann Shoener's "Luculentissima quaeda[m] terrae totius descriptio: cu[m] multis utilissimis ..." This 1515 Nuremberg imprint brings $78,000 against an estimate of $20,000 to $30,000. I paid $33,750 in 1998.

Lot 10 is a 1535 Waldeemueller map - Terra Nova Ocenunus Occidentalis [(titled on verso). I brought it at Sotheby's in 1998 for $5,750. Today it is estimated $5,000 to $7,000 and brings $12,000.

Ten lots into the sale all lots have sold raising $620,760.

Lot 11 is Solinus' "In C. Julii Solini Polyistora enarrationes." I purchased this 1520 imprint from H. P. Kraus for $21,120 in 1998. Today it is estimated $30,000 to $50,000 and brings $60,000.