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Sotheby’s is still the straw that stirs the drink

- by Bruce E. McKinney

Sotheby’s is still the straw that stirs the drink

Sotheby’s has announced they are capping their buyer’s maximum commission to 20%, down from 26 + 1%.

 

It has been apparent for some time that while auction outcomes for paintings and other high value collectibles were rising, Sotheby’s original business based on rare books, while best in class worldwide in 2023 among the 300 auction houses we cover, was also relatively quiet by their recent standards.  Sotheby’s February announcement to lower their commission rates effective May 20th was probably principally based on improving their performance with paintings, their largest category.  While Sotheby’s has often dominated collectible paper over the years, Christie’s has been turning paint, pigments and frames into gold.  Now Sotheby’s new lower commission rates seem designed to encourage additional bids on paintings by lowering their buyer’s premium.  In this calculation, collectible paper is almost an innocent bystander except that collectible paper and paintings share the same rate card.  Simply stated, paintings are where the dough is.

 

Sotheby’s revised rates are logical based on objects worth well into the five figures but very few examples of collectible paper reach that threshold.  Last year we covered 658,433 lots offered that turned into 525,664 sales worldwide, from which we have drawn our annual Top 500 lots for 2023.  Leading off was Sotheby’s Codex Sassoon at $38,126,000 descending to No. 500, Bonham’s Darwin’s On the Origins of Species [1859] that sold for $93,449.00.  Further below were the other 525,164 lots that sold, generating close to a billion dollars with a $1,904.17 average winning realization.  In other words, most collectible paper is making tens of thousands of people’s hearts flutter but not many lots are going to be mentioned on the front pages of the New York Times.

 

My point is Sotheby’s new pricing is aimed to encourage bidders spending major money, while collectible paper is solid and healthy, is a few light years away. Using the same rate card for paper and paintings is going to need imagination.

 

High value collectibles have been on a very good run for the past 10 years while prices for paper rarely reach $90,000 for single lots [per our annual report].  Hence Sotheby’s adjusting their rates now to cater to the art and high value collectible markets is simply good sense.

 

While the headlines about Sotheby’s are speaking to and of the lower buyer’s premium, in the weeds is another important change, their fresh incentives to lower estimates.  That’s going to increase their percentage of lots sold.

 

Now Collectible Paper needs to adjust.

 

For Sotheby’s and other houses that have this lucky predicament, to sell collectible paper and valuable paintings, they can match Sotheby’s headline figure:  20%, by reinstating the previously waived or reduced consigner’s fees.  Presto the houses’ net margins are restored and collectible paper’s place in their pantheons remain secure.

 

This does not suggest that the collectible paper auction market is unhealthy, rather than when an auction house makes policy based on expensive paintings and other high ticket material, collectible paper’s consignor fees are going to be firmer.

 

In any event, many rising mid-tier auction houses may find themselves benefiting from the focus on higher value material by their stately brethren, leaving them opportunities to sell superb material that falls outside of their target range.

 

Certainly the vast majority of Collectible Paper will continue to flow easily into those rooms that are open to it.  Adjustments in fees will be resolved.  And because a fresh wave of Collectible Paper, primarily ephemera is now looking for auction rooms to accommodate them, many houses will offer them a safe harbor.

 

The world changes.

 

Here are their lots within our Top 500 for 2023:

1 38,126,000 USD 30,000,000.00 - 50,000,000.00 . Codex Sassoon .  
1 1,744,000 USD 1,500,000.00 - 2,000,000.00   Ydea Topografica de los altos del Missisipi y del Missouri. Que demuestra los progresos de la compañia Española de descubiertas del rio Missouri, y las usurpaciones de las companies inglesas sobre las posesiones Españolas. …   [Antoine Soulard]
1 1,722,168 GBP 800,000.00 - 1,200,000.00   Autograph manuscript draft lyrics for 'Bohemian Rhapsody', c.1974   Freddie Mercury
1 889,000 USD 700,000.00 - 1,000,000.00   Articles of Agreement, assigning to Sir Humphrey Gilbert 1,500,000 acres of land   Sir Humphrey Gilbert
1 698,500 USD 300,000.00 - 500,000.00   Typescript scroll of The Dharma Bums. Typed by Kerouac in Orlando, Florida, 1957, published by Viking in 1958   Kerouac, Jack
1 635,000 USD 250,000.00 - 300,000.00   Trattato della pittura, manuscript on paper   Leonardo da Vinci
1 546,134 GBP 150,000.00 - 200,000.00   A unique set of 14 daguerreotypes of the officers of the Franklin expedition, 1845   Richard Beard Studio
1 533,400 USD 250,000.00 - 300,000.00   Petri Criniti Libri de poetis Latinis.   Crinito, Pietro.
1 529,200 USD 400,000.00 - 600,000.00   The President's Answer. To the Hebrew Congregation, in Newport, Rhode Island, in The Herald of Freedom, Vol. IV, Numb. LI.   George Washington
1 529,200 USD 400,000.00 - 600,000.00   A True Relation of such occurrences and accidents of noateas hath hapned in Virginia since the first planting of that Collony, which is now resident in the South part thereof, till the last returne from thence. Written by a Gentleman of the said Collony,   [John Smith]
1 508,000 USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Mao Zedong, Calligraphic autograph letter to Evans Carlson, 9th May (1937)    
1 508,000 USD 40,000.00 - 60,000.00   A signed photograph of Mao Zedong at Yan'an, dedicated to Evans Carlson, circa 1937    
1 482,600 USD 400,000.00 - 500,000.00   Il terzo libro; Regole generali   Serlio
1 482,600 USD 300,000.00 - 400,000.00   The Federalist: A Collection of Essays, Written in Favour of the New Constitution, as Agreed upon by the Federal Convention, September 17, 1787.   (Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, and John Jay)
1 446,099 EUR 5,000.00 - 7,000.00   Coran enlumine.    
63 412,371 GBP 200,000.00 - 300,000.00   Notebook with autograph manuscript lyrics for songs in the album Jazz, c.1978   Freddie Mercury
67 396,511 GBP 120,000.00 - 180,000.00   Autograph manuscript draft lyrics for 'Don't Stop Me Now', c.1978   Freddie Mercury
68 396,511 GBP 200,000.00 - 300,000.00   Autograph draft working lyrics for 'We Are The Champions', c.1977   Freddie Mercury
69 388,665 GBP 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Autograph manuscript of Hagars Klage, D.5, SCHUBERT'S FIRST SURVIVING SONG, SIGNED BY THE 14-YEAR-OLD COMPOSER ("Franz Schubert")   Franz Schubert
73 381,000 USD 400,000.00 - 600,000.00   Hypnerotomachia Poliphili : ubi humana omnia non nisisomnium esse docet atque obiter plurima scitu sane quam digna commemorat [Latin and Italian]   Colonna, Francesco.
77 369,532 GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00   Mr Adams' Album, a large album of watercolours depicting people, ceremonies, occupations, genre scenes, architecture, and flora and fauna, India, Bengal, and Burma, circa 1828-40   Mr Adams
82 355,600 USD 280,000.00 - 350,000.00   Carmina, manuscript on vellum   Tiraboschi
83 348,930 GBP 50,000.00 - 70,000.00   Autograph draft lyrics for 'Killer Queen', c.1974   Freddie Mercury
86 333,069 GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00   A folio from an Akbarnama, A prince on horseback with his entourage, India, circa 1595-1600   Mughal, attributed to the artist Khem
88 325,139 GBP 40,000.00 - 60,000.00   Autograph draft lyrics to 'Love of My Life', c.1974-75   Freddie Mercury
95 304,800 USD 40,000.00 - 60,000.00   The original manuscript for "Snow Crash," 1991-1992   Neal Stephenson
97 301,348 GBP 150,000.00 - 200,000.00   Autograph draft lyrics for 'Somebody To Love', c.1976   Freddie Mercury
98 301,348 GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00   Autograph manuscript lyrics for songs on the album 'A Night at the Opera', c.1975   Freddie Mercury
111 279,400 USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00   Il libro del cortegiano del conte Baldessar Castiglione. Nuovamente ristampato   Castiglione, Baldassarre.
120 266,700 USD 275,000.00 - 350,000.00   Divina proportione; Euclid Opera   Pacioli; Euclid
139 241,300 USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00   Athenaeus Naucratita.   Athenaeus Naucratita.
140 241,300 USD 70,000.00 - 100,000.00   Mansfield Park, the first edition in original boards --- a rare survival   [Austen, Jane]
141 241,300 USD 70,000.00 - 100,000.00   A handsome first edition in boards of the author's debut novel   [Austen, Jane]
152 228,600 USD 20,000.00 - 30,000.00   The original typesetting manuscript for "Snow Crash," ca. 1992.   Neal Stephenson
154 226,800 USD 180,000.00 - 220,000.00   The Federalist: A Collection of Essays, written in favour of the new Constitution, as agreed upon by the Federal Convention, September 17, 1787.   Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay
155 226,721 GBP 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Clavier Ubung bestehend in einer Aria mit verschiedenen Veraenderungen vors Clavicimbal mit 2 Manualen.   Johann Sebastian Bach
166 215,900 USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Jane Austen's copy of Curiosities of Literature   [Austen, Jane] --- Isaac D'Israeli
168 214,116 GBP 40,000.00 - 60,000.00   Autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for the album Sheer Heart Attack, c.1974   Freddie Mercury
182 203,200 USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00   M.T.C. Epistolae familiares.   Cicero, Marcus Tullius.
183 203,200 USD 80,000.00 - 100,000.00   Catullus, Tibullus, Propertius,   Catullus, Tibullus, Propertius,
184 203,200 USD 200,000.00 - 300,000.00   Il libro del cortegiano del conte Baldesar Castiglione.   Castiglione, Baldassarre.
187 198,765 GBP 1,500.00 - 2,500.00   The Story of the Sultan and Imperial Leather, c.1968-9   Freddie Mercury
191 194,985 EUR 15,000.00 - 20,000.00   Les Roses.   Redoute, Pierre-Joseph et Claude-Antoine Thory
192 194,332 GBP 120,000.00 - 180,000.00   Manuscript miscellany owned, annotated and signed (with initials) four times by Ralegh   Sir Walter Ralegh
199 190,500 USD 140,000.00 - 200,000.00   Petri Bembi de Aetna ad Angelum Chabrielem liber   Bembo, Pietro.
200 190,500 USD 80,000.00 - 120,000.00   Original mock-up of Madeline.   Bemelmans, Ludwig
201 190,500 USD 150,000.00 - 250,000.00   The Viviparous Quadrupeds of North America.   Audubon, John James
217 177,800 USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Printed broadside signed ("John Hancock") as a Selectman of Boston, denouncing taxes "imposed upon the People, without their Consent"   Hancock, John
218 177,800 USD 180,000.00 - 250,000.00   United States Constitution   United States Constitution
228 174,465 GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00   Autograph manuscripts lyrics of songs for the album Queen II, c.1973   Freddie Mercury
244 167,130 EUR 80,000.00 - 120,000.00   De Trinitate (livres IV-XV, cum tabula) ; Confessiones (livres I-V).   Augustin, saint (Aurelius Augustinus Hipponensis)
246 165,693 GBP 50,000.00 - 70,000.00   Book of fair copies of 52 letters, mostly unpublished, many in Wesley’s hand   John Wesley–Methodism
248 165,100 USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   I called myself Pip, and came to be called Pip.   Dickens, Charles
249 165,100 USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   I am no bird; and no net ensnares me...   Bronte, Charlotte
257 161,589 EUR 40,000.00 - 60,000.00   Apocalypsis cù[m] figuris.   Dürer, Albrecht
259 159,824 GBP 100,000.00 - 200,000.00   Queen Elizabeth I—Sir Gilbert Dethick | 9 illustrated heraldic manuscripts presented to the Queen, 1568-80   Queen Elizabeth I—Sir Gilbert Dethick
260 158,604 GBP 120,000.00 - 180,000.00   Notebook with working lyrics, early 1970s   Freddie Mercury
262 156,038 GBP 70,000.00 - 90,000.00   A history of the birds of Europe, including all the species inhabiting the Western Palaearctic Region.   Henry Eeles Dresser
274 152,400 USD 80,000.00 - 120,000.00   It is a truth universally acknowledged...   [Austen, Jane]
275 152,400 USD 150,000.00 - 200,000.00   L'anthropologia di Galeazzo Capella secretario dell'illustrissimo signor duca di Milano   Capella, Galeazzo Flavio
294 145,749 GBP 20,000.00 - 30,000.00   A map of the British and French dominions in North America, with the roads, distances, limits and extent of the settlements.   John Mitchell
309 142,744 GBP 12,000.00 - 18,000.00   Notebook containing autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for The Miracle, 1988-89   Freddie Mercury
315 138,269 EUR 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Histoire de la peinture en Italie.    
316 138,269 EUR 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Copie autographe de sa correspondance croisée, et de celle de sa fille, avec Mme de Sévigné, Mme de Grignan et quelques-uns de leurs amis.   Bussy-Rabutin, Roger de
328 132,555 GBP 15,000.00 - 20,000.00   Sacrae Scripturae veteris, novaeque omnia.    
329 132,311 EUR 50,000.00 - 70,000.00   Rituel de l'abbaye royale de S. Germain des Prez les Paris, Contenant les prieres & ceremonies a faire lorsque les Religieux de la de Abbaye portent les Reliques de la glorieuse Vierge & Martyre S. Marguerite aux Reynes & Princesses du sang.   Jarry, Nicolas (attribue a) - Nicolas Robert
344 127,000 USD 100,000.00 - 150,000.00   Autograph document signed ("Th: Jefferson") as third President, to the New Jersey legislature   Jefferson, Thomas
345 127,000 USD 150,000.00 - 200,000.00   Florilegium diversorum epigrammatum in septem libros. [Device]   Anthologia Graeca.
346 127,000 USD 150,000.00 - 200,000.00   Autograph manuscript signed ("A. Lincoln"), being Lincoln's official transcript of the "Subscription Book forthe Capital Stock of the Alton and Sangamon Rail Road Company,"   Lincoln, Abraham
367 121,458 GBP 60,000.00 - 80,000.00   The Lord of the Rings.   J.R.R. Tolkien
384 118,953 GBP 20,000.00 - 30,000.00   Autograph manuscript lyrics for songs on the album A Day at the Races, 1976   Freddie Mercury
395 114,300 USD 80,000.00 - 100,000.00   Hypnerotomachia Poliphili, ubi humana omnia non nisisomnium esse docet atque obiter plurima scitu sane quam digna commemorat   Colonna, Francesco.
402 113,400 USD 90,000.00 - 120,000.00   Gardner's Photographic Sketch Book of the War.   [Alexander Gardner, et al]
412 111,610 GBP 70,000.00 - 100,000.00   The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (B. 64; M., Holl. 167)   Albrecht Durer
415 111,023 GBP 5,000.00 - 7,000.00   A significant archive of c. 265 photographs, mainly 1980s   Freddie Mercury
418 109,227 GBP 70,000.00 - 90,000.00   The natural history of Carolina, Florida and the Bahama Islands.   Mark Catesby
440 105,263 GBP 10,000.00 - 15,000.00   The Hobbit or There and Back Again. Boston and New York   J.R.R. Tolkien
444 104,456 EUR 30,000.00 - 50,000.00   Voyage pittoresque de la Grece.   [Choiseul-Gouffier, Marie Gabriel, comte de]
447 103,093 GBP 50,000.00 - 70,000.00   Autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for the album Jazz, c.1978   Freddie Mercury
451 101,600 USD 70,000.00 - 100,000.00   A Monograph of the Trochilidae, or Family of Humming-Birds.   Gould, John
452 101,600 USD 80,000.00 - 100,000.00   Autograph manuscript, being George Washington's diary entries for a portion of March 1762   Washington, George
453 100,993 EUR 35,000.00 - 55,000.00   La Rivière enchantée.   Foujita, Tsugouharu Léonard ? René Héron de Villefosse
470 96,788 EUR 60,000.00 - 80,000.00   Erotemata. Alphabetum graecum cum multiplicibus litteris. Oratio dominica. Ave Maria. Symbolum Apostolum. Evangelium Johannis. Pythagoras, Aurea verba. Pseudo- Phocylides, Sententiae sive Moralia [en grec et en latin].   Lascaris, Constantinos
471 96,733 GBP 70,000.00 - 100,000.00   A monograph of the trochilidae, or humming-birds [with supplement].   John Gould
479 95,250 USD 35,000.00 - 50,000.00   The only surviving portion of the autograph manuscript of the Sherlock Holmes story, "The Adventure of the Crooked Man"   Doyle, Arthur Conan, Sir
480 95,163 GBP 30,000.00 - 50,000.00   Autograph manuscript lyrics of songs for the album Queen I, c.1971-72   Freddie Mercury
481 95,163 GBP 40,000.00 - 60,000.00   Autograph working lyrics to 'Good Old-Fashioned Lover Boy', c.1976   Freddie Mercury
498 93,623 GBP 60,000.00 - 80,000.00   Highly important collection of autograph manuscript working papers, CONSTITUTING THE GREATER PART OF HIS WRITINGS ON CHINESE ASTRONOMY AND INCLUDING MANY OF HIS MOST FAMOUS WORKS AS WELL AS MUCH OF HIS CORRESPONDENCE FROM CHINA, in 12 volumes   Father Antoine Gaubil
             
  62,480,580