Recently at the New York Book Fair I saw two Albany maps that, although expensive, were very appealing. I wanted to buy them. As I often do when considering important material I asked others for their opinion and the endorsements were warm but somewhat cautionary. This then inadvertently brought into focus what the final years of my collecting may entail, having to say no for no other reason than that there may not be enough time on the clock to overcome the markups I pay to buy. Long ago I established the theory [and subsequently proved it] that the difference between what many dealers charge and what a collector can expect to recoup at auction ten years later is about a breakeven. This is of course more complicated than simply paying asking prices and waiting ten years. Establishing the correct current value is essential because dealer prices range from the occasionally seriously underpriced to the occasionally seriously overpriced. Understanding actual value is therefore important when buying and the rate of price recovery about 30% per decade. This means that purchases have to be carefully calculated if among the goals of the collector are both an impressive assembly and financial prudence.
Two collections I sent to auction in 2009 and 2010 to Bloomsbury [then in New York] and Bonhams today prospering in New York were very successful. Between them they raised $7.3 million including about a $900,000 gain. The average holding period was about 12 years, a few for most of 20 years and others for as few as 5.
So now I’m 68 and a high fraction and thinking these last collections of mine, all variations on a New York Hudson River theme, will be sold when I’m 75 +/- a year. This means I no longer have the option to buy with the expectation of a 10-year hold to bring the price I sell for back into line with the price I pay. And it’s unsettling because I enjoy collecting. I have given advice to many to plan to sell in their lifetime, in particular not to expect that partners, widows, widowers, children or executers will do better. That’s unlikely to happen because collecting is complex and takes years to accomplish. A collector invests their time because they have the desire and no one else is going to feel the same way or invest the same energy so it is inescapably the collector’s responsibility to dispose.
There are of course many ways to do this; by gift [with a tax deduction], by sale to dealers [only the very best collections will qualify] or a library, or sell at auction in which case many decisions will be necessary. Where to sell all or a part, whether to sell by category, whether to sell via a single house or several depending on their expertise, experience, following and interest; these are all factors to consider.
In other words, just when your knowledge and experience are peaking you have to begin to plan your withdrawal. I suppose it’s like seeing a three-act play. Even as the first and second acts are superb you can begin to feel the nag of regret for you know there are only so many acts – that this play will end.
Sotheby’s: The Shem Tov Bible, 1312 | A Masterpiece from the Golden Age of Spain. Sold: 6,960,000 USD
Sotheby’s: Ten Commandments Tablet, 300-800 CE | One of humanity's earliest and most enduring moral codes. Sold: 5,040,000 USD
Sotheby’s: William Blake | Songs of Innocence and of Experience. Sold: 4,320,000 USD
Sotheby’s: The Declaration of Independence | The Holt printing, the only copy in private hands. Sold: 3,360,000 USD
Sotheby's Sell Your Fine Books & Manuscripts
Sotheby’s: Thomas Taylor | The original cover art for Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone. Sold: 1,920,000 USD
Sotheby’s: Machiavelli | Il Principe, a previously unrecorded copy of the book where modern political thought began. Sold: 576,000 GBP
Sotheby’s: Leonardo da Vinci | Trattato della pittura, ca. 1639, a very fine pre-publication manuscript. Sold: 381,000 GBP
Sotheby’s: Henri Matisse | Jazz, Paris 1947, the complete portfolio. Sold: 312,000 EUR
Bonhams, Apr. 8: First report outside of the colonies of the American Revolution, from American accounts. Printed broadsheet, The London Evening-Post, May 30, 1775. $20,000 - $30,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: Joyce, James. The earliest typescript pages from Finnegans Wake ever to appear at auction, annotated by Joyce, 1923. $30,000 - $50,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: Joyce's Ulysses, 1923, one of only seven copies known, printed to replace copies destroyed in customs. $10,000 - $15,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: ATHANASIUS KIRCHER'S COPY, INSCRIBED. Saggi di naturali esperienze fatte nell' Accademia del Cimento, 1667. $2,000 - $3,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: Bernoulli's Ars conjectandi, 1713. "... first significant book on probability theory." $15,000 - $25,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: Aristotle's Politica. Oeconomica. 1469. The first printed work on political economy. $80,000 - $120,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: John Graunt's Natural and political observations...., 1662. The first printed work of epidemiology and demographics. $20,000 - $30,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: William Playfair's Commercial and Political Atlas, 1786. The first work to pictorially represent information in graphics. $15,000 - $25,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: Anson's A Voyage Round the World, 1748. THE J.R. ABBEY-LORD WARDINGTON COPY, BOUND BY JOHN BRINDLEY. $8,000 - $12,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: La Perouse's Voyage de La Perouse autour du monde..., 1797. LARGE FINE COPY IN ORIGINAL BOARDS. $8,000 - $12,000
Bonhams, Apr. 8: Charles Schulz original 8-panel Peanuts Sunday comic strip, 1992, pen and ink over pencil, featuring Charlie Brown, Snoopy and Lucy as a psychiatrist. $20,000 - $30,000